Five reasons why Nethercutt lost

Rep. George Nethercutt effectively skipped the Republican primary to get an early start in his campaign against Sen. Patty Murray. So I’m going to skip right past the general election in this week’s column to detail why Nethercutt lost his bid for Murray’s seat after a strong start.

1. The sheep became the wolf. In 1994, Nethercutt knocked off Tom Foley, in part by arguing the House speaker was a professional politician disconnected from his district. But then Nethercutt cynically broke the term-limits pledge that was central to his first congressional campaign. This year, the Spokane Republican moved to Bellevue, leaving himself wide open to charges he had morphed into a right-wing version of Foley. When Nethercutt angrily protested Murray’s ads highlighting his move, her campaign simply used the congressman’s own recent state-

ments and actions to prove its point.

2. The campaign squandered its credibility. From ads in-

correctly charging that Murray failed to support the Coast Guard to overheated press releases riddled with errors, Nethercutt’s campaign rarely allowed the facts to get in the way of a good attack. The unsub-

stantiated charges heated up as his poll numbers stalled, culminating in an ad alleging Murray’s stance on medical liability reform would “cost patients – potentially even cost them their lives.” First he lost the editorial pages, then he lost the voters.

3. He’s a perfect candidate – for the East Side. But Nethercutt, a conservative so staunch that President Bush campaigned at his side before hitting the trail for any other Senate candidate this year, doesn’t play well in a statewide race dominated by moderate-to-liberal voters. He tried almost everything to make himself palatable to West Siders: moving to Bellevue, making a disingenuous statement opposing a constitutional ban on gay marriage and supporting a version of the Wild Sky wilderness initiative that blew up in his face at the last minute. Nethercutt even compared himself to John F. Kennedy in one ad. But he couldn’t run far enough away from his right-wing record to win over the Seattle crowd.

4. Murray finally woke up. After running a rope-a-dope campaign early on, the incumbent Democrat finally hit her stride in September. Already popular with many constituents, the senator ended up cruising to victory. If Nethercutt had been able to boast about renewing the federal deduction for Washington state sales taxes this past summer, Murray might have had a close race on her hands. But the tax break got bogged down in procedural muck and didn’t make it to the president’s desk in time to help the congressman’s cause.

5. Bush wears reverse coattails here. Progressives were as energized against Bush this year as conservatives were pumped for Ronald Reagan in 1980. Many Bush voters here just weren’t as driven to get to the polls this time around. The resulting boost in Washington’s Democratic turnout really swamped Bush ally Nethercutt in the end.

OK, I’m back from my trip to the not-so-distant future, as they used to say on “Mystery Science Theater 3000.” But I’m still convinced this race is over – unless Murray gets hit by a bus or Nethercutt personally captures Osama bin Laden. I’m certain enough to make you this promise: If Nethercutt wins under any other scenario, I’ll quit my column. But the odds of that happening are about as long as

they are for the Mariners to win

the World Series this year.