‘Sopranos’ likely to celebrate Emmy evening with a bang

The Emmys might never be the same after tonight.

The broadcast networks have been chafing at the annual dominance of HBO, so much so that the Television Academy has begun looking into ways to even the playing field by establishing separate categories for cable channels.

If the broadcasters were upset before, they are liable to be livid by midnight. It is conceivable HBO could run the table in the most prestigious categories – best drama and comedy series, outstanding movie and miniseries – as well as the top acting awards in those fields.

Here’s how the awards are likely to shake out this year:

• Drama Series: If “The Sopranos” isn’t finally recognized as what it has been since its premiere – the finest drama of its time, let alone any single season – the Emmys are a sham, never to be taken seriously again. “The West Wing,” which has won four times as much for its Hollywood-friendly politics as artistic merit, should not even have been nominated after a lackluster season. “CSI: Crime Scene Investigation” would only have a shot absent “The Sopranos.” “24” didn’t win even when “The Sopranos” was on hiatus, and “Joan of Arcadia” is in just to fill out the field.

• Lead Actor, Drama: At least the academy gets this right: James Gandolfini (“The Sopranos”) has won the last three times he has been nominated. James Spader (“The Practice”) and Kiefer Sutherland (“24”) can take heart that next year they will have a legitimate shot with “The Sopranos” on hiatus again. Martin Sheen didn’t win during the years “The West Wing” swept almost everything, and Anthony LaPaglia (“Without a Trace”) looks like category filler.

• Lead Actress, Drama: Edie Falco was last year’s surest thing after the gut-wrenching marriage-breakup episode that ended season four of “The Sopranos.”

She didn’t have an opportunity as powerful this past season, but even mundane Falco outshines the rest of the pack, which includes Jennifer Garner (“Alias”), Mariska Hargitay (“Law & Order: Special Victims Unit”), Amber Tamblyn (“Joan of Arcadia”) and former winner Allison Janney (“The West Wing”).

• Supporting Actor, Drama: Michael Imperioli has been steady and solid, but Steve Buscemi, in what will be his only year on “The Sopranos,” jumped off the screen in every episode.

“The Sopranos” duo outshines John Spencer (“The West Wing”), Victor Garber (“Alias”) and Brad Dourif (“Deadwood”).

• Supporting Actress, Drama: Robin Weigert was terrific as Calamity Jane in “Deadwood,” but the slow-developing HBO Western series didn’t generate much buzz except for its profanity. Academy darling Tyne Daly (“Judging Amy”) can never be dismissed, nor can Stockard Channing and Janel Moloney of “The West Wing” or Drea de Matteo of “The Sopranos.”

Since there aren’t many other places for “The West Wing” to be recognized, Moloney could win.

• Comedy Series: “Curb Your Enthusiasm” deserves to win, and a “Sex and the City” triumph would not be a miscarriage of justice. However, the feeling is voters are going to put so many check marks next to HBO nominees, they’ll look elsewhere in this category.

“Arrested Development” is the best of the rest, but its anorexic ratings work against it. “Will & Grace” has seen its best days, so the academy, which loved “Raymond” last year, likely will again.

• Lead Actor, Comedy: No disrespect intended to a wonderful actor and human being, but the late John Ritter does not belong in this category; he was in only three episodes of “8 Simple Rules” before his untimely passing, and none was award caliber. The voters also showed their soft sides by bestowing going-away nominations on Kelsey Grammer (“Frasier”) and Matt LeBlanc (“Friends”).

Tony Shalhoub (“Monk”) was a worthy winner last year and would be again, but absent an HBO backlash, Larry David (“Curb Your Enthusiasm”) should win his first Emmy as an actor.

• Lead Actress, Comedy: Fans of “Sex and the City” might hold it against Sarah Jessica Parker that she almost single-handedly ended the series. Jennifer Aniston (“Friends”) and Patricia Heaton (“Everybody Loves Raymond”) already have been recognized in this category, and nobody paid attention to “The Bonnie Hunt Show,” so it’s time that Jane Kaczmarek of “Malcolm in the Middle,” up for the fifth straight year, gets her chance to give an acceptance speech.

• Supporting Actor, Comedy: Peter Boyle is moving into Susan Lucci Land. This is the sixth straight year he has been nominated and he remains the only member of the “Everybody Loves Raymond” ensemble not to win.

The field is loaded, with three past winners — Brad Garrett (“Raymond”), David Hyde Pierce (“Frasier”), Sean Hayes (“Will & Grace”) — and Jeffrey Tambor (“Arrested Development”), who also was nominated four times for “The Larry Sanders Show.” The toughest hurdle is Garrett, but this is Boyle’s year.

• Supporting Actress, Comedy: The three “Sex and the City” contenders — Kristin Davis, Kim Cattrall and Cynthia Nixon — are so equal they will probably cancel out each other, leaving it to Doris Roberts (“Raymond”) and Megan Mullally (“Will & Grace”).

Age before beauty: The veterans in the academy will give Roberts a consecutive triple.

• Miniseries: “Angels in America” was landmark television, not only Emmy caliber but Hall of Fame worthy. It’s a virtual lock in this category, and it should win every one of the acting awards as well.

“Prime Suspect 6,” “Horatio Hornblower,” “Traffic: The Miniseries” and “American Family” picked a bad year to be good.

• TV Movie: Hollywood can make a political statement by voting the trophy to “The Reagans,” since the rest of the field — “And Starring Pancho Villa as Himself,” “Ike: Countdown to D-Day,” “The Lion in Winter” and “Something the Lord Made” — is the weakest in memory.

• Reality-Competition Program: This category was created to recognize “Survivor,” but the academy couldn’t overlook the superior production values of “The Amazing Race” last year, and shouldn’t this year, either.

“American Idol,” “Survivor” and “The Apprentice” will have to settle for superior ratings. That “Last Comic Standing” got an Emmy nomination is funnier than anything heard on the show.

• Variety, Music or Comedy Series: The name of the exercise is Primetime Emmy Awards. Did it occur to anyone that not one of the nominees — “The Late Show With David Letterman” (which always wins), “Chappelle’s Show,” “The Daily Show With John Stewart,” “Late Night With Conan O’Brien” and “Saturday Night Live” — airs in prime time?

Oh well, this won’t be the most ridiculous thing to happen on Emmy night.