Record setters

The surest bet in music these days is that all bets are off. The recording industry has learned the hard way that even platinum divas (Mariah Carey), rock sensations (Limp Bizkit) and sizzling trends (teen pop) can go from royal flush to toilet flush in the blink of a Third Eye Blind.

With album sales riding 7.4 percent ahead of last year, the music business has reason to feel confident heading into the fourth quarter, though sales will have to be hefty to catch the robust final stretch of 2003.

Whether success is in the cards this season depends on the commercial appeal of hundreds of releases across multiple genres. Still, a handful of key titles are stacking the deck – and although the industry is wary of gambling too heavily on any specific acts, nobody is betting against the ace of rock, the king of rap and the queens of R&B.

Upcoming albums by U2 (“How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb,” Nov. 23), Eminem (“Encore,” Nov. 16) and Destiny’s Child (“Destiny Fulfilled,” Nov. 16) are expected to top the charts and reap fat holiday sales.

“There isn’t really any doubt about those three,” says Alan Light, editor of music magazine Tracks. “At this point, I’m loath to say anyone is guaranteed a million-selling first week, given the way the world is, but Eminem is as much a lock for that as exists anywhere.

“And the others are big records that have been long anticipated and well set up. These are people who are not following fluke hits. They consistently deliver the goods.”

Eminem’s last two studio albums, 2002’s “The Eminem Show” and 2000’s “The Marshall Mathers LP,” each sold in excess of 9 million copies. He also became a box-office force with the semi-autobiographical “8 Mile.”

“He’s reached an interesting moment where too many people like him,” says Light. “That was the risk of ‘8 Mile.’ He really did cross over into full mainstream success, where you had op-ed writers saying, ‘He’s OK.’

“To do his job, Eminem has to be adversarial and controversial. He needs to pour gasoline on the flame. So the question is, how hard will he come out swinging?”

When U2 resurfaced in 2000 with “All That You Can’t Leave Behind,” singer Bono declared the album a bid to claim the title of world’s greatest rock band. The Irish quartet stands to reaffirm its supremacy with the rock-solid “Atomic Bomb,” recorded in Dublin and France and produced by Steve Lillywhite, Flood, Nellee Hooper and others. The first single “Vertigo” went to radio Sept. 24.

“I’m very impressed,” says Light, one of several critics who have heard the album in advance. “It’s an exciting record. They got that place back, and they’re still fighting for it.”

The last album “won back and created a lot of fans,” he adds. “I have to assume a hunger is there. There certainly is anticipation.”

With alpha female Beyonce entrenched in a lucrative solo career, Destiny’s Child seemed unlikely to reunite, particularly given its early history of rocky personnel changes. But pop-soul’s “it girl” has reconnected with Kelly Rowland and Michelle Williams, both of whom also released solo records, for the R&B trio’s fourth studio album.

Fans will get a taste of the group’s comeback with first single “Lose My Breath.”

“The album should do well as long as it feels of the moment with the right songs and the right producers,” Light says. “People will be very curious to hear what they come up with after Beyonce’s success.”

Here’s a look at some of the other releases that record companies will be gambling on over the next couple of months:

“ Rod Stewart, “Stardust … The Great American Songbook: Volume III” (Oct. 19)

Last hand: The first two installments of “Songbook” — 2002’s “It Had to Be You …” and 2003’s “As Time Goes By …” — sold 2.5 and 2.1 million copies, respectively, and both have remained on the charts since their release.

New deal: Produced by Richard Perry, Steve Tyrell and Stewart’s label chief and comeback champion, Clive Davis, “Stardust” will pair the born-again chanteur with some celebrity duet partners. Tracks include “Baby It’s Cold Outside” (with Dolly Parton), “What a Wonderful World” (with Stevie Wonder on harmonica) and “Blue Moon” (with Eric Clapton).

Stakes: Stewart is competing with a posse of lesser-known but more authentic-sounding classic-pop interpreters. Will his appeal hold, or will he have to find another trendy style?

“ Ja Rule, “R.U.L.E.” (Nov. 9)

Last hand: The hard-core “Blood in My Eye” came out amid Ja’s beef with 50 Cent and got a lukewarm reception, failing to go gold with 454,000 copies sold.

New deal: The first single from “R.U.L.E.” is “Wonderful,” featuring Ashanti and R. Kelly. Other guest stars will include Fat Joe, Mary J. Blige and Jadakiss.

Stakes: “Wonderful” marks a return to the thug-love formula that helped to make the scruffy-voiced rapper a superstar, and he needs a smash to regain his lost status. At the same time, he needs to maintain enough edginess to keep fans of his grimier material in the fold.

“ Elton John, “Peachtree Road” (Nov. 9)

Last hand: The Piano Man’s last studio album, 2001’s “Songs From the West Coast,” earned praise but sold an unremarkable 588,000 copies, a droplet in his career total of 200 million albums. He’s still doing blockbuster business on the road and at his critically hailed revue in Las Vegas.

New deal: Like its predecessor, “Peachtree Road” parlays John’s strengths as a warm vocalist and master tunesmith. It’s another return to form with longtime writing partner Bernie Taupin.

Stakes: John won’t be tarnished even if “Peachtree” bears no fruit — an unlikely outcome considering his profile, the music’s accessibility and favorable early reviews of first single “Answer in the Sky.”

“ Chingy, “Powerballin’ ” (Nov. 16)

Last hand: He hit the “Jackpot” with his 2.8 million-selling debut album of that title, which featured three hit singles: “Right Thurr,” “Holidae In” and “One Call Away.” The St. Louis rapper’s penchant for slurring words was much like that of the Lou’s other shining light, Nelly, but the similarities didn’t detract from Chingy’s success.

New deal: First single “Balla Baby” comes on the heels of fellow rapper Houston’s hit “I Like That,” on which Chingy is featured.

Stakes: He’s holding a winning ticket. A year ago, he exceeded expectations with his debut. Now he seems well-positioned to build on what he started.

“ Lil’ Jon and the East Side Boyz, “Crank Juice” (Nov. 16)

Last hand: 2003’s “Kings of Crunk” peaked at No. 14, but it’s still on the chart and has sold 2.2 million units. It spawned several singles, including the anthemic “Get Low.”

New deal: Crunk was originally an Atlanta phenomenon, but Lil’ Jon soaked up the Miami club culture to make this one. Guests include Ice Cube, R. Kelly, Ludacris, T.I., Nas, Jadakiss, Snoop Dogg, Nate Dogg, Usher and Jamie Foxx.

Stakes: In a short period, Lil’ Jon has made crunk a driving force in urban music. “Crunk&B” songs such as Usher’s “Yeah!” and Ciara’s “Goodies” have spread it to the mainstream. This time he should hit big out of the box.

“ Snoop Dogg, “R&G (Rhythm & Gangsta): The Masterpiece” (Nov. 16)

Last hand: Sold 1.1 million copies of 2002’s “Paid tha Cost to Be tha Bo$$.”

New deal: Snoop is, it seems, on every other album that comes out. He’s touring with Linkin Park and appearing in movies, TV shows and video games, and is on the charts already with 213’s “The Hard Way.” He’ll be working with previous collaborators The Neptunes and the Gap Band’s Charlie Wilson, and he’ll also team with Lil’ Jon, who seems nearly as omnipresent as Snoop.

Stakes: Snoop’s strong core audience makes it unlikely that he’ll lose.

“ Fantasia, untitled (Nov. 23)

Last hand: Few pop stars have enjoyed as much exposure (or suffered as much scrutiny) as the 2004 “American Idol” winner. If a tiny fraction of the finale’s 28.8 million viewers buy the young singer’s debut album, she’ll join earlier “Idol “winners in the top 10 club. Her “I Believe/Summertime” has topped singles sales for three months but has been a notable radio failure.

New deal: Still in the studio, Fantasia has been collaborating with Jermaine Dupri, Missy Elliott and Jazze Pha.

Stakes: Fantasia may have lasting appeal, but if her opening week or overall sales fall short of “Idol” benchmarks, it could signal a waning of the show’s powers or a glut of “Idol” product (five new albums this fall).

“ Ludacris, “Red Light District” (Nov. 23)

Last hand: “Chicken and Beer,” driven by the rambunctious single “Stand Up,” sold 3.4 million.

New deal: This is Ludacris’ fifth album in four years. Jermaine Dupri, Shawna, Missy, DMX, Nate Dogg, DJ Quik, Trick Daddy and Twista are among the guests.

Stakes: The charismatic rapper has grown with each album, and he tries to keep his momentum going with more rowdy anthems and tales of debauchery.

“ Gwen Stefani, untitled (Nov. 23)

Last hand: As frontwoman of No Doubt – whose last studio album, 2001’s “Rock Steady,” has sold 2.8 million – the platinum blonde has become a darling of the music and fashion communities, with a firm foundation of critical and commercial cachet.

New deal: Stefani will be accompanied by a crew of ace producers and co-writers on her first solo flight, among them Dr. Dre, Dallas Austin, Dave Stewart, The Neptunes, Andre 3000, Linda Perry and Nellee Hooper. Depeche Mode’s Martin Gore and Prince cohorts Wendy & Lisa are guest guitarists.

Stakes: With No Doubt’s future in little doubt, and a blossoming film career to boot, a successful solo bow could cement Stefani’s stature as a multitasking A-lister.