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The Spokesman-Review Newspaper
Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Friendly atmosphere


Visitors to the Ag Expo Show check out the STX 450 Quadtrac Tuesday afternoon.
 (Brian Plonka / The Spokesman-Review)

Rain and cool temperatures predicted this spring should give relief to farmers worried about dry conditions, a well-known meteorologist said Tuesday during Spokane Ag Expo.

Art Douglas, a weather prognosticator with a reputation for accuracy, said the wet weather will arrive beginning in April and last through June — perfect for the fields of wheat stretching across Eastern Washington, Oregon and Idaho.

The rains should give way to a warm, dry summer. The conditions could give farmers a bumper wheat crop, said Douglas, chairman of the atmospheric science department at Creighton University in Omaha, Neb.

Driving the current weather patterns afflicting California and — until last week — keeping the Northwest dry, is a weak El Nino system off the coast of Central and South America.

The strength of El Nino is attributable to trade winds that help move massive amounts of warm water toward Asia. If winds are strong, steady and sustained perhaps for years, the amount of pooled warm water can be huge, such as the El Nino of the late 1990s that garnered so much attention when it sloshed back toward the Americas, much like water in a bathtub.

This year’s El Nino tradewinds were weak by comparison.

The large body of warm water is smaller than usual and is competing with a second large body of warm water parked off the west coast of Washington and Oregon.

This system has forced storms to slam into California while largely missing the Northwest. Douglas said the warm water creates a high pressure system that routes the jet stream to the north and south of the Pacific Northwest.

“This gives forecasters fits,” he said.

For many years farmers attending the big annual Ag Expo farm show have gathered to hear Douglas. While winter wheat has been planted for months, farmers can use long-range weather predictions to guide spring crop decisions.

While his weather report may be a bright spot for production levels, similar good growing conditions expected in the Midwest could put downward pressure on prices.

Forecasts for Europe and the Black Sea region weren’t offered.

However the wheat-growing regions of China, along with India and Australia may be relatively dry. Those nations play a major role in the global wheat business.

For the Inland Northwest, Douglas said the remainder of this winter will be cold, dry and maybe even foggy. He said the arctic air arriving this week shouldn’t last long.

The good news for wheat farmers is that wheat fields have a good snow covering and winter wheat seedlings should be able to survive temperatures expected to dip well below zero.