Determined politicians always have chance to beat scandal

As Spokane Mayor Jim West navigates the biggest political storm of his quarter-century in public life, he faces two different questions.

How long can he remain in office? How effective can he be while he is there?

The answer to the first is primarily up to him, at least in the short-term, say political experts who note that leaders may be more able to weather a political hurricane than they once were. Think Bill Clinton riding out the Monica Lewinsky scandal.

“He’s done some things right,” said Cathy Allen, a Seattle political consultant who primarily advises Democrats, referring to West’s actions since The Spokesman-Review began reporting allegations ranging from sexual assault to misuse of his authority. “He has admitted some guilt. Almost anybody can forgive somebody who says, ‘I’ve made mistakes.’ “

Todd Myers, former executive director of the state GOP who is now a private political consultant, said there’s no rule of thumb on whether a politician resigns or survives a scandal. “There’s a long period of time where he takes his lumps. You put your head down, go to work and keep doing things people of Spokane want you to do.”

The answer to the second question is more complicated, because any political leader must be able to rally key constituencies to do things a community needs done.

“Your ability to govern depends a great deal on the credibility of the officeholder and the ability to use the bully pulpit,” said Ron Dotzauer, an adviser to candidates ranging from former Washington Gov. Booth Gardner to U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell.

West has lost the backing of some key former supporters, including the Spokane business establishment and the local and state Republican Party, which asked him to resign. So did the Spokane City Council, in a unanimous vote on May 31.

Although those groups took weeks to call for his resignation, that doesn’t necessarily suggest West is more likely to win his fight to stay in office, said Blair Butterworth, a consultant on campaigns throughout Washington.

“The fact is that they all got there,” Butterworth said. “On the contrary, they can say ‘We did not rush to judgment. This was not a knee-jerk reaction to a scandal in the paper.’ “

To accomplish any new program or initiative – such as the possible tax increase for more police, fire and library services – the mayor will need to win back the support of those groups. If he can’t, he might remain in office, even until the end of his term, but he won’t be able to govern.

“Bill Clinton made himself ubiquitous during his most difficult times,” said Brett Bader, a GOP political strategist.

But while Clinton was portraying himself “above the fray” and busy with the job of running the country, he had an army of supporters working to discredit his detractors, Bader added. “If the mayor is fighting on his own, it will be tougher to make this go away.”

West has denied the accusations of two men who say he sexually assaulted them while they were in his Boy Scouts troop in the early 1970s. He has denied offering city positions for sexual favors but admitted to bad judgment in his personal life, and his e-mails show he used a city account to contact someone he thought had just turned 18 and had met in a gay chat room. That person was actually a forensic computer expert hired by The Spokesman-Review to confirm an allegation by a young Spokane man that he met West on Gay.com and had sex with him.

Although he initially denied being gay, West later described himself as being gay or bisexual, and he complained at one point “I’m being persecuted as a gay man.”

Several political observers said they doubt West can remain in office by playing “the gay card” and claiming to be a victim of homophobia.

As a legislator he sponsored and voted against some gay-rights legislation, and as mayor he opposed benefits for the domestic partners of city employees. In an interview on NBC’s “Today,” West said he was merely taking positions that his constituents wanted: “The majority of the people in my district, that’s the way they feel.”

“I don’t think there’s much support for the position” that Spokane’s homophobic, Dotzauer said. But it is a place where people want to know who their elected leaders are and will react negatively if a leader is not what he appears to be, Allen said.

Nor can West regain much of his lost support by claiming to be “a victim of the press,” Allen contends.

At his one press conference since the allegations were reported, West said he and his attorneys “are in discussions” about suing The Spokesman-Review for its reporting. In most cases involving a political scandal, while people don’t like the press, most of them don’t believe a politician’s claim of being persecuted by it, she said.

West has refused to resign and said he plans to continue working for the good of Spokane. But he does face a recall effort from a petition filed last month. A Superior Court judge ruled on June 13 that an allegation that West offered internships to young men for his own purposes had enough information to justify moving forward to the signature-gathering stage.

West has appealed the ruling to the state Supreme Court, which will meet on July 14 to decide when it will consider the appeal. West predicted at his June 3 press conference that the recall effort would not succeed.

“I was chosen by the voters of Spokane,” he said. “I don’t think the will of the voters should be overturned lightly. In a recall, if the voters say Jim West should go, Jim West will gracefully go. But I intend to serve out my term.”

West has the same legal right to appeal as anyone facing an unfavorable court decision in the recall proposal, political consultants agreed. An appeal might be the right thing to do legally, but the wrong thing politically.

“The more you fight legally, the worse your public approval is,” Myers said, noting that Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire recently won the court battle over the disputed 2004 election but has suffered in some public opinion polls. “Winning in court can hurt you in the court of public opinion.”

The Spokane Regional Chamber of Commerce, the Spokane Economic Development Council and the Spokane Convention and Visitors Bureau all urged West last week to forgo an appeal and to let recall supporters see if they can gather signatures needed to get the proposal on the ballot.

Because West has seen so many of his former support groups abandon him and publicly call for his resignation, some outside observers are ready to write West’s political obituary. “He’s a walking dead man,” said Butterworth. “It’s only because the process is so cumbersome and he’s so delusional that he’s still there.”

Myers isn’t convinced. West could survive in office if he can convince Spokane residents that their quality of life is improving, and things are getting better. It would be difficult, and personally painful, for him to serve out his term. But not impossible.

To help him, West has assembled a legal team of Spokane attorneys Bill Etter and Carl Oreskovich. West also has reportedly sought the services of public relations firms and advice from GOP strategists.

“Jim West has been one of the state’s most effective politicians for a reason,” Myers said.