Flying almost anywhere is going to cost more

You’d better hope your wallet sprouts wings this summer.

Leisure air tickets were running 9 percent higher for domestic travel compared with last year in the four weeks ending May 9, said Bob Harrell, president of New York-based Harrell Associates, which tracks these fares.

Prices for airline tickets recently sold by Orbitz for international travel June 1 through Aug. 31 were up 13 percent over last summer, the Internet travel seller reported.

Starting in June, round trips between Los Angeles and Europe typically will cost $1,000 or more, travel agents report, compared with some winter prices that dipped below $400.

Even now, the least expensive fares are fast disappearing.

When I asked Kathy Sudeikis, president of the American Society of Travel Agents, what’s hot in travel this summer, she responded: “What’s not hot is waiting (to book). Those airfares are only going to go up.”

She added: “If you don’t have to travel in June, July or August, don’t.” Other industry insiders offered the same advice.

There are many reasons for the high cost of flying this summer, but they come down to one principle: When demand for a product increases and the supply doesn’t, prices go up.

Summer is always a peak travel season, as millions of families with children strive to squeeze vacations into the same few weeks. And passenger traffic is up this year – more than 5 percent in the first quarter, according to the Air Transport Association.

Meanwhile, airlines, for the most part, aren’t adding flights. Total takeoffs were about the same in the first quarter this year as last, the ATA reported.

Awash in red ink and wounded by high fuel prices, the so-called legacy carriers, such as Continental, Delta, Northwest, United and US Airways, can ill afford to fly with empty seats. So they fly fuller.

The picture for travel in the United States seems somewhat better than for Europe. Taking advantage of their financially weaker competitors, low-cost carriers such as JetBlue and Southwest are adding flights. That puts pressure on prices.

Here’s how summer airfares are shaping up, region by region:

Europe: “If you find anything less than $1,000 for (a Los Angeles)-London round trip, run – don’t walk,” said Brian Clewer, who owns Continental Travel Shop, an air fare consolidator in Santa Monica, Calif. “If it’s much less than $1,000, it’s too good to be true.”

On top of the base fare, taxes, fees and as much as $60 in fuel surcharges can add more than $175 to a trans-Atlantic ticket. “When you add the taxes and fuel surcharges, people are in shock,” Clewer said.

Clewer’s advice: Don’t book lodging in Europe this summer until you get your airline ticket. Even better, consider taking your trip in the fall, when prices fall.

Latin America and the Caribbean: The Caribbean, Mexico and Central and South America could be the Europe alternative this summer for globe-trotting Americans. The dollar is stronger than it is in Europe, plus there are some fare deals.

American Airlines, for instance, on May 11 advertised round trips for $248 between New York and St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and $158 between Miami and San Juan, Puerto Rico. (These fares might no longer be available.)

There are more deals because there are more flights. Low-cost carriers, such as JetBlue and America West, have been strengthening their footholds in the Caribbean and Mexico.

Legacy carriers, fleeing domestic competition, are adding flights too because Latin America is the nearest foreign region they can serve with existing aircraft, said Michael Allen, chief operating officer at Back Aviation Solutions, an aviation consulting company in New Haven, Conn.

Hawaii: Demand is rising, and so are prices. The lowest published round-trip fares from Los Angeles for July, on average, were recently $597 to Honolulu and $714 to Kona on the Big Island, versus $577 and $685 in July last year, said Amy Bohutinsky, spokeswoman for Hotwire, a discount Internet travel seller.

Mainland U.S.: Although fares are up, that’s a recent trend. Lately, we’ve been paying less to fly in the United States on average than we have in the last five years, according to federal statistics for the fourth quarter 2004, the latest available.

Some legacy airlines have announced fare increases this year to cover higher fuel costs, including a round earlier this month. But faced with low-cost competition, many have backed off or raised fares only on certain routes.

In fact, one way to shop for lower fares is to look at cities where low-cost carriers are moving in and price wars are heating up. Fares in Philadelphia, for instance, fell more than 15 percent in late 2004 after Southwest started flying there.