Consider ‘tire wear’ when evaluating backs
Tire tread is the most important consideration when projecting an NFL running back.
We’re wary of backs over 30 or who have logged more than 1,700 carries, a number exceeded by only 35 men in NFL history. Last year, six of nine 30-and-over running backs ended up being losing investments relative to where they were drafted. And that’s better success than most years.
Current NFL starters over 30 are Priest Holmes (Chiefs), Tiki Barber (Giants), Corey Dillon (Patriots), Jerome Bettis (Steelers, who might look spry to Willie Parker), Warrick Dunn (Falcons), Curtis Martin (Jets) and Mike Anderson (Broncos). Stephen Davis (Panthers) belongs on this list, but he’s still being stolen 130 picks into average drafts.
Our mileage warning puts a red flag next to 27-year-old Edgerrin James, who’s already tallied 1,828 carries.
Other factors in our recommendations are how players faired last year in three key stats: inside-the-5 plays, plays per TD and plays per game.
Players are over/undervalued relative to their average placement (AP) in thousands of ESPN leagues that have already drafted.
Undervalued
Mewelde Moore (Vikings, AP: 141st overall): Last year, Moore averaged 5.8 per carry and 8.8 per catch with 537 total yards in his three starts. He was far more effective than Michael Bennett. Think committee here, but Moore can emerge as the leader and be a far cheaper Brian Westbrook-type.
Larry Johnson (Chiefs, AP: 90): More than the best insurance policy in fantasy football. There’s a significant chance that Holmes will miss extensive action, at which point Johnson becomes arguably the best back in fantasy football. Johnson played at a 2,200-yard, 32-TD pace as a starter the last month of ‘04.
J.J. Arrington (Cardinals, AP: 73): Rookies are very speculative. Reports that he’s too undersized at 5-foot-9, 214-pounds are silly. Dennis Green has hitched his wagon to Arrington and knows that Marcel Shipp isn’t the answer, as he prefers niftier runners.
Julius Jones (Cowboys, AP: 21): The NFL leader in touches per game. Jones likely would have finished in the top five in inside-the-5 plays if his stats were extrapolated to a full season. Bill Parcells typically gives the goal-line carries to his primary running back, no matter his size.
Overvalued
Priest Holmes (Chiefs, AP: 3): Last year, he was also listed as overvalued in my preseason column and I got a lot of grief via e-mail until Holmes was forced to sit out the entire second half of ‘04. Again, he’ll be great as long as he’s healthy, but health is unlikely for old running backs with Holmes’ injury history.
Jamal Lewis (Ravens, AP: 9): Lewis was 22nd in inside-the-5 plays and 22nd in fewest plays per TD in ‘05. But how is he going to get more easy scoring opportunities with the dreadful Kyle Boller at the helm? Lewis is too big, takes a lot of punishment and didn’t condition himself while doing his “Longest Yard” stint in the Federal Pen.
Tiki Barber (Giants, AP: 18): Barber has an extra strike against him compared to the other 30-year-old backs. The Giants drafted gigantic 270-pound Brandon Jacobs to be the goal-line back. So unless Barber gets a number of long-distance scores and receiving TDs, it’s hard to project more than a half-dozen scores.
Brian Westbrook (Eagles, AP: 28): Westbrook had six plays (runs/catches/intended receiver) from inside the 5 last year. That was 31st among NFL running backs. He finished 14th in attempts-per-TD, but it’s usually unwise to count on a back so reliant on generating points as a receiver.