Numbers don’t lie: Woods should pass Nicklaus, Snead

MIAMI — Here’s a little proposition sure to spark debate — maybe even a wager or two — among your grillroom buddies.

Which record is Tiger Woods more likely to rewrite first: Jack Nicklaus’ mark of 18 major championships, or Sam Snead’s total of 82 PGA Tour victories?

Until recently, the concept wasn’t likely to appear on anyone’s radar. But with Woods now the fastest to reach the 50-win plateau, a survey of the landscape seems in order.

And Snead definitely is on the horizon. But if Woods can keep his current pace, the 2013 season should be interesting.

Since coming down from his otherworldly 2000 heights, Woods has averaged 4.5 wins per season. Extrapolate the numbers, and he’s on track to match Snead’s mark sometime late in 2013.

That’s also the year projected for Woods to pull even with Nicklaus, based on his rate of one major per year.

In other words, a virtual dead heat.

Of course, the balance could change quickly if Woods carries his current hot streak through this week’s PGA Championship. Any year with two majors puts Nicklaus in greater jeopardy. But Woods also has endured two dry spells of 10 majors, which would seem to put Snead more at risk.

“It’s a long way away,” Woods said.

Yet well worth watching.