Trojans may finally be left behind
Is this the year? That’s the question going into the Pac-10 season, where for the first time in what seems like an eternity the general consensus is that USC doesn’t necessarily have a stranglehold on the West’s pre-eminent football conference. The Trojans, coming off of three seasons of domination, have to replace a bunch of star power in quarterback Matt Leinart, running backs Reggie Bush and LenDale White, as well as a number of other established starters. Of course, Pete Carroll’s recruiting machine in Los Angeles has USC still standing as the preferred choice of most to win the league. But it’s not unanimous, and with that here are the teams vying for Pac-10 superiority, in order of predicted finish:
California Golden Bears
2005 record: 8-4, 4-4 Pac-10
Head coach: Jeff Tedford, 33-17 in four years; 33-17 in four years overall.
Returning starters: Seven on offense, eight on defense.
When they play the Cougars: Oct. 14 in Pullman.
Outlook: Quarterback is a big question mark – as is the case for most every team picked to do well in the league this year. Nate Longshore returns from injury, and he’ll need to have a solid season for Cal to do this well. Things get easier, though, as the Bears sport the best 1-2 running back combination in America with Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett. There shouldn’t be a team in the Pac-10 that can slow Cal’s run game, and it’s likely that no team will be able to contain a budding star in defensive tackle Brandon Mebane, either.
USC Trojans
2005 record: 12-1, 8-0
Head coach: Pete Carroll, 54-10 in five years; 33-31 in four years as an NFL coach.
Returning starters: Four on offense, six on defense.
When they play the Cougars: Sept. 30 in Pullman.
Outlook: The Trojans probably won’t be able to depend on outscoring teams like they did last season with so much talent gone to the NFL. No matter, though, as the defense figures to take a more prominent role under the tutelage of Nick Holt, Idaho’s departed head coach and the new defensive coordinator here. Still, USC has plenty of firepower on offense, and will throw at will to All-American Dwayne Jarrett. The offensive line figures to sport at least one All-American by year’s end as well.
Oregon Ducks
2005 record: 10-2, 7-1
Head coach: Mike Bellotti, 90-42 in 11 years; 111-67-2 in 16 years overall.
Returning starters: Seven on offense, six on defense.
When they play the Cougars: Oct. 21 in Pullman.
Outlook: This was not the same team after quarterback Kellen Clemens got injured last season, and his graduation means that Dennis Dixon and Brady Leaf will again have to pick up the slack. Running back Jonathan Stewart will get a chance to showcase his immense talent – if healthy. Oregon has a tough schedule this season with road games at Cal, USC and Arizona State. If they can survive one or two of those, it could be another double-digit win season.
Arizona State Sun Devils
2005 record: 7-5, 4-4
Head coach: Dirk Koetter, 33-28 in five years; 59-38 in eight years overall.
Returning starters: Ten on offense, five on defense.
When they play the Cougars: Nov. 11 in Tempe, Ariz.
Outlook: The Sun Devils redefined quarterback controversy this month as Koetter selected Sam Keller, then changed his mind after a reported player revolt of sorts. Rudy Carpenter is the man now, and Keller is off to Nebraska. Carpenter led the nation in passing efficiency last season, so the high-powered Koetter passing game should be just fine. After the mess at quarterback, the big story here is how the defense reacts after ranking 114th in the nation last year. Three transfers could start on the defensive line, and their play might determine if Koetter escapes the maelstrom created by the quarterbacking situation.
UCLA Bruins
2005 record: 10-2, 6-2
Head coach: Karl Dorrell, 22-15 in three years; 22-15 in three years overall.
Returning starters: Five on offense, seven on defense.
When they play the Cougars: Oct. 28 in Pasadena, Calif.
Outlook: The Bruins enjoyed comeback after comeback last season, but the real test might come this season after losing a bunch of contributing players in the off-season. Chris Markey isn’t the same type of runner as Maurice Drew, but Markey could easily be one of the league’s more productive backs. As is the case almost every year at UCLA, this team could be strong if the defense is anything better than awful. That’s not a guarantee.
Arizona Wildcats
2005 record: 3-8, 2-6
Head coach: Mike Stoops, 6-16 in two years; 6-16 in two years overall.
Returning starters: Seven on offense, nine on defense.
When they play the Cougars: Nov. 4 in Pullman.
Outlook: The soothsayers are taking their biggest leap of faith this season on the Wildcats, who haven’t done much to merit a pick this high in 2006. Stoops is under the gun to produce some results this year, and he’s got a decent chance to do so with an improved defense and a quarterback everyone seems to love in sophomore Willie Tuitama. A blowout win over UCLA in 2005 appeared to be a harbinger of good things to come; now Arizona must show that that win and the promise of last November weren’t a fluke.
Stanford Cardinal
2005 record: 5-6, 4-4
Head coach: Walt Harris, 5-6 in one year; 68-74 in 12 years overall.
Returning starters: Nine on offense, six on defense.
When they play the Cougars: Sept. 23 in Palo Alto, Calif.
Outlook: Not many figure the Cardinal to do even this well in 2006, but with the league’s most experienced signal caller in Trent Edwards and a solid head coach in Harris, count on Stanford to win a couple of games no one expects it to. Such was the case last season, when the Cardinal would have had a bowl bid were it not for an embarrassing early loss to I-AA UC Davis. A brand new stadium will provide more of a home-field edge than the permanently moribund Stanford Stadium of years past, another reason to expect this team might surprise some people.
Washington State Cougars
2005 record: 4-7, 1-7
Head coach: Bill Doba, 19-16 in three years; 19-16 in three years overall.
Returning starters: Seven on offense, six on defense.
Outlook: The heat is also on in Pullman, where back-to-back disappointing seasons have the Cougars staring at a return to irrelevance if things don’t change in a hurry. The talent on offense is there, but the same can’t be said on defense and injuries are also starting to become a concern. WSU can’t afford to play every game as a shootout because the running game may not be 100 percent reliable and quarterback Alex Brink has shown a tendency to throw too many interceptions when it counts. Still, with so many close losses in 2005, the thinking is that this is a group that — if cohesive — has a chance to make strides.
Oregon State Beavers
2005 record: 5-6, 3-5
Head coach: Mike Riley, 28-30 in five years covering two tenures; 14-34 in three years as an NFL coach.
Returning starters: Eight on offense, seven on defense.
When they play the Cougars: Oct. 7 in Corvallis, Ore.
Outlook: Perhaps this is an underestimation of what the Beavers bring back to the fold this fall. But the graduation of wideout Mike Hass will affect this team more dramatically than most understand, with Matt Moore’s first-, second- and third-down go-to guy gone. The entire offensive line and running back Yvenson Bernard are back, so Oregon State could sport a solid ground game. The Beavers will need it to eat up the clock and protect an iffy secondary that could get burned by Pac-10 offenses.
Washington Huskies
2005 record: 2-9, 1-7
Head coach: Tyrone Willingham, 2-9 in one year; 67-61-1 in 11 years overall.
Returning starters: Six on offense, eight on defense.
When they play the Cougars: Nov. 18 in Pullman.
Outlook: Willingham’s rebuilding project is still just that, with the Huskies still at least a year away from turning a corner in all probability. Count this as another season where Washington doesn’t march a single player onto the field that will scare an opponent, although quarterback Isaiah Stanback at least has potential to put together a nice season. The running game does not look strong, and the defense –while far from the Pac-10’s worst – isn’t going to be strong enough to win games on its own, either.