“Happy New Year” wishes at this time should have special meaning because 2006 is likely to bring us closer to the legendary “peace and prosperity.” But it will be a mixed bag in politics and sports. Predictions for five of the top headlines:

“ President Bush declares “victory” in Iraq in midyear, with sharp troop reductions before the November elections.

“ Republicans lose some seats but retain majorities in both the House and Senate.

“ The economy and stock market start slow but finish strong, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average approaching 12,000.

“ “Stop the Sox” becomes the cry from New York to California, as the Chicago White Sox repeat their World Series championship.

“ Notre Dame regains its glory days, finishing the football season rated No. 1.

The surest bet is Bush on Iraq. Keeping most troops in Iraq for now and bringing many home before the election is as premeditated as was his “pre-emptive” invasion in 2003.

That political trick should save the Republican congressional majority next year. But in 2008, if Iraq remains a mess and Osama bin Laden remains at large (both likely), the GOP will lose both the White House and Congress.

While heartland sports fans in Illinois and Indiana will have plenty to cheer about, the curse returns to Boston. The Red Sox will miss the playoffs for the first time in four years.

My beloved Yankees, with more talent than ever thanks to baseball’s best boss George Steinbrenner, should breeze through the regular season to win the American League East. But Manager Joe Torre’s traditional playoff bungling from the bench likely will have them stumbling again in October, for the sixth year in a row.

Other views on Al’s 2006 predictions:

“But it is difficult to see a political tsunami much before the wave crashes upon the sand. So we may be surprised come November with the results. He who lives by the crystal ball ends up eating ground glass.”

— Larry Sabato, director, University of Virginia’s Center for Politics

“Al knows baseball. Pitching is the name of the game; it will keep the Red Sox out of the money and will be the Yanks’ demise (not Joe Torre) in the playoffs against the powerful arm of the Chicago White Sox. The Sox will not be stopped in ‘06, prompting talk of ‘First Team in First City.’ Put it on the ballot.”

— Steve Phillips, ESPN baseball analyst