Oscar forecast

The only sure thing about this year’s Oscar nominations is that there are very few sure things. You can be certain the name George Clooney will be blurted out more than once come Jan. 31, when contenders for the Academy Awards are announced. Expect, too, to hear multiple mentions for “Brokeback Mountain.” Other than that, your guess is as good as mine. Unlike previous years, when critical favorites such as “Million Dollar Baby” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” triumphed and the Oscars followed a predictable course, this year count on upsets and snubs aplenty. The hardest category to whittle down to just five is the best actor contest. Early in the fall, it seemed like Philip Seymour Hoffman should have started writing his acceptance speech, given his perfect turn as author Truman Capote in “Capote.” But then out of nowhere, Heath Ledger knocked us out as a confused cowboy smitten with another man in “Brokeback.” Here’s how the nominations are shaping up:

Best Picture

“Sure things: “Brokeback Mountain,” “Good Night, and Good Luck.”

“Other contenders: “The Constant Gardener,” “Crash,” “King Kong,” “Match Point,” “Munich,” “The New World,” “Syriana,” “Walk the Line.”

“Crystal-ball gazing: Some of the movies seeking Oscar’s attention tackle touchy topics, from the racism in “Crash” to the combating of terrorism with more violence in “Munich.” All that high-mindedness could knock out deserving but ambitious contenders and give points to spectacular entertainment such as “King Kong” or “The Chronicles of Narnia.”

“Munich” will likely be overlooked, because it tackles a no-win topic and refuses to take a stand or offer any resolutions, something Academy voters tend to dislike. Dense but tidy, “Crash” demonstrates the right way to tie together multiple story lines – a lesson the confusing yet lauded “Syriana” should have heeded.

And since Oscar traditionally adores a mainstream biopic, don’t be surprised if the Johnny Cash and June Carter romance “Walk the Line” winds up singing a happy tune.

“And the nominees are: “Brokeback Mountain,” “Good Night, and Good Luck,” “Crash,” “Walk the Line,” “The Constant Gardener.”

Best Actor

“Sure things: Hoffman in “Capote,” Ledger in “Brokeback Mountain,” David Strathairn in “Good Night.”

“Other contenders: Eric Bana in “Munich,” Russell Crowe in “Cinderella Man,” Jeff Daniels in “The Squid and the Whale,” Terrence Howard in “Hustle & Flow,” Ralph Fiennes in “The Constant Gardener,” Joaquin Phoenix in “Walk the Line.”

“Crystal-ball gazing: What a year to be an actor. Men had the most challenging roles, from the colorful writer Capote to an Israeli secret agent besieged by paranoia in “Munich.”

Fiennes is the one most likely to be flung unfairly to the sidelines. He had a tremendous year, with standout roles as the king of Harry Potter’s pain in “The Goblet of Fire,” the vain villain in the “Wallace & Gromit” feature, and the blind, broken-down diplomat in “The White Countess” And in “The Constant Gardener,” he moved us deeply with an elegant and heartbreaking performance.

The nominating committee will likely continue to anoint actors for portraying American legends, from Phoenix as the fiery Cash in “Walk the Line” to Strathairn as the uncompromising journalist Edward R. Murrow in “Good Night, and Good Luck.”

“And the nominees are: Hoffman, Howard, Ledger, Strathairn and Phoenix.

Best Actress

“Sure things: Reese Witherspoon for “Walk the Line,” Felicity Huffman for “Transamerica,” Keira Knightley for “Pride & Prejudice.”

“Other contenders: Joan Allen for “The Upside of Anger,” Claire Danes for “Shopgirl,” Judi Dench for “Mrs. Henderson Presents,” Laura Linney for “The Squid and the Whale,” Gwyneth Paltrow for “Proof,” Charlize Theron for “North Country,” Zhang Ziyi for “Memoirs of a Geisha.”

“Crystal-ball gazing: It was another rotten year to be an actress. Of the above names, only five truly deserve the honor: Allen, Witherspoon, Huffman, Theron and Linney.

Allen coiled with resentment in the underrated “Upside of Anger.” Witherspoon was spunky and magnetic as the plucky June Carter, even stealing the spotlight from Phoenix. Knightley radiated charm in the joyous “Pride & Prejudice” and TV’s Huffman (“Desperate Housewives”) pulled off an Oscar nomination shoo-in, playing against gender type as a pre-operative transsexual in “Transamerica.”

Dench will likely nudge Theron aside for her delightful turn as a theater proprietress in “Mrs. Henderson Presents,” even though we’ve seen her do this act before.

Then there’s the overrated Paltrow, who turned in an anemic, all-strings-showing performance as the daughter of a genius exorcising her own demons in “Proof.”

The one most deserving of a nomination but most likely to be denied is Linney, who gave another gem of a performance as an intellectual grappling with not just divorce, but a new love and two mixed-up sons in “The Squid and the Whale.”

And the nominees are: Dench, Huffman, Knightley, Paltrow, Witherspoon.

Best Director

Sure things: Ang Lee for “Brokeback Mountain,” Clooney for “Good Night, and Good Luck.”

Other contenders: Woody Allen for “Match Point,” David Cronenberg for “A History of Violence,” Paul Haggis for “Crash,” Ron Howard for “Cinderella Man,” Peter Jackson for “King Kong,” Terrence Malick for “The New World,” Fernando Meirelles for “The Constant Gardener,” Bennett Miller for “Capote,” Steven Spielberg for “Munich.”

Crystal-ball gazing: This will be a battle among veterans, even though a freshman talent like Miller should be in the running. Lee and Spielberg are the most deserving, and will likely make the grade. Clooney is a lock, because he had such a strong year of acting, writing and directing (“Good Night”), and producing and acting (“Syriana”).

The Academy seems ready to bestow sainthood on Jackson, but nearly everyone who got antsy watching “Kong” wanted to buy the director a pair of sharp scissors. After a long drought, Allen is winning raves for his suspenseful “Match Point.” And Malick tests our patience, again, with the beautiful “New World.”

Momentum and renewed word-of-mouth are building for Howard for his moving “Cinderella Man,” and Cronenberg for his unsettling “History of Violence.”

And the nominees are: Allen, Clooney, Lee, Malick, Spielberg.

Supporting roles

Expect an eclectic mix in the supporting categories with recognizable names such as Matt Dillon (“Crash”), William Hurt (“A History of Violence”) and Shirley MacLaine (“In Her Shoes” or “Rumor Has It”) mixing with relative newcomers such as “Brokeback’s” Jake Gyllenhaal and Michelle Williams.

Lesser-known scene-stealers – Richard Jenkins as the father who changes his thinking in “North Country,” Amy Adams as the chatty Ashley in “Junebug,” Catherine Keener as Harper Lee in “Capote,” and Roberta Maxwell as a grieving mother in “Brokeback” – should be hearing their names announced.

So should Jesse Eisenberg and Owen Kline, as two brothers caught in the cross hairs of a bitter divorce in “The Squid and the Whale.” Sadly, they will likely be overlooked, since their movie is too smart for the Academy.

But you never know about that fickle guy named Oscar. That’s why I’ll be up early on Jan. 31, ready to be both surprised and disappointed.