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The Spokesman-Review Newspaper
Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Vote too close to call


A mother holds her son as he casts her vote Sunday during presidential elecions in Oaxaca, in southern Mexico.
 (Associated Press / The Spokesman-Review)
Jay Root and Kevin G. Hall McClatchy

MEXICO CITY – The most contentious Mexican presidential election in a generation turned into a nail-biter late Sunday, with exit polls showing the race’s two frontrunners locked in a virtual tie.

Mexican media outlets were cautious about the likely outcome of the race, and none was willing to name either leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Party of the Democratic Revolution, or PRD, or conservative Felipe Calderon of the National Action Party, or PAN, as the likely winner.

With emotions running high and reports of irregularities trickling in, most media outlets declined to reveal the results of their polls. Only TV Azteca reported precise numbers, showing Calderon with a 2 percentage-point lead – within the poll’s margin of error. The newspapers Reforma and El Universal and the television network Televisa said only that the race was a tie.

Electoral officials said they could not release the results of Sunday night’s quick count of the votes. Luis Carlos Ugalde, president of the Federal Electoral Institute, said an official count would begin Wednesday, and a winner will be declared once it’s complete.

The United States has a major stake in the outcome of the election. While Calderon has pledged to keep in place pro-U.S. policies of current President Vicente Fox, Lopez Obrador has vowed to delay portions of the North American Free Trade Agreement and to strike a more independent foreign policy, particularly on issues involving Cuba.

The two men also have proposed different ways of discouraging migration to the United States, with Lopez Obrador calling for greater subsidies to the poor and the expansion of public works programs.

Ugalde went on television Sunday night and urged candidates to avoid declaring victory until his panel had made it official. He called on Mexicans to avoid taking to the streets in celebration or in protest.

The only firm result of the exit polls was that for the first time in modern Mexican history, the candidate of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which had held onto the presidency for more than seven decades until 2000, won’t be among the top two finishers.

The PRI’s president, Mariano Palacios, late Sunday called on election authorities to avoid making any statement until they were sure of a winner.

The close race is likely to upset supporters of Lopez Obrador, who for two years has been leading the opinion polls. But Calderon ran a vicious campaign designed to scare middle-class voters, warning them a leftist president would lead Mexico into an alliance with leaders like Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Cuba’s Fidel Castro.

Lopez Obrador said repeatedly he would not make radical changes to Mexico’s longstanding macroeconomic policies, which have been followed by three successive presidents since 1992, but his focus on increased social spending and his skepticism of Washington-style free trade policies represent a real break from current policy.

Polls had predicted a close finish, prompting concerns of unrest if days lingered with no results or if the results were disputed. The PRD lost a close presidential election in 1988, when the then-PRI-controlled election commission’s computers suffered an hours-long failure, during which the PRD’s candidate’s lead was overtaken. The winner of that election was the PRI’s Carlos Salinas de Gotari.

George Grayson, a Mexico political analyst and author of a book about Lopez Obrador called “Mexican Messiah,” said Lopez Obrador has raised expectations so much among the poor that they may not be able to accept defeat.

“Even if he went on TV and said let’s cool it, I don’t think he could restrain his followers from pretty ugly demonstrations if he is announced as the loser,” said Grayson, acting as an international observer. “And I’m an optimist.”