Piniella’s Cubs should flub as much as past bunglers

CHICAGO – I pity the fool who believes that next year will be the Cubs’ year.

That miracle-worker-of-the-moment Lou Piniella will pull a Jim Leyland and turn lemons into lemonade. That there is a good chance Sweet Lou can do with these lovable losers what he couldn’t do with Tampa Bay’s unlovable ones, simply because the Cubs do throw good money after bad, as opposed to the Devil Rays, who do not.

I can think of at least five reasons why the Cubs are going to make a headfirst slide into the 100-year mark of utter futility. That no matter if Piniella does make a pledge to dig them out of last place – he gave this same guarantee in Tampa – we still will not see a World Series at Wrigley Field in his managerial lifetime.

Five popular misconceptions:

1. “The Cubs have a lot of talent.”

Not only is this wrong, it is the substance you find on a matador’s shoes. Every team has some talent. You can’t become a major leaguer without having some talent. Tampa Bay had several players of above-average talent.

You are deluded if you think the Cubs’ 25-man roster is deeper than Pittsburgh’s or Kansas City’s or any other bottom-feeding ballclub.

At only two of nine positions, first base and third base, do the Cubs have exceptional talent. The first baseman is coming off a serious injury – which Cub isn’t? – as well as a distracting family crisis involving a child, while the third baseman might leave town voluntarily or be trade bait.

To call any of the other players great is a stretch. Good, maybe. Adequate is more accurate. Cesar Izturis and Juan Pierre have special skills, but one is injury-prone and neither of them could hit the ball out of the park with a tee.

The pitching staff could be baseball’s worst. It has one above-average pitcher, Carlos Zambrano, period. The rest are middle relievers, injury rehabbers or relative rookies. Ryan Dempster is a closer who should start and Kerry Wood is a starter who should close.

2. “Tribune Co. is willing to spend.”

Whatever it takes? Really? Even with a corporate fiscal climate in turmoil? Even with itchy stockholders and company-wide cutbacks?

On top of $10 million to a man to manage a last-place team, Tribune Co. is going to pile an extra $20 million onto the Cubs payroll? It is going to outspend the Florida Marlins by $100 million a year? It is going to pony up $115 million or more to buy a World Series championship after watching the New York Yankees fail in this endeavor while spending nearly twice that?

Logically, short of putting the club up for sale, what Tribune Co. ought to be doing is slashing payroll. If next season Piniella does not deliver us to Valhalla, it would behoove the Cubs to conclude: “We can lose just as easily with a low-pay team as with a high-pay one.” Save a fortune, dump those gaudy salaries and give the rookies a shot.

3. “Fans love this team, no matter what.”

Don’t bet on it. Wrigley’s natives are restless. They boo now. They pay to see the Cubs play, but they are growing visibly more irritable year by year.

Many have had a bellyful of bad baserunning and bunting. Of overpaid players claiming they care only what teammates think. Of finding out heroes like Sammy Sosa turn out to be self-centered cheaters. Of losing a popular broadcaster like Steve Stone because people from a bad team can’t stand having anything bad said about them.

TV ratings for the White Sox are now comparable to the Cubs’. Who thought that day would come?

4. “They’re in a weak division.”

Don’t hand me that stuff about St. Louis being an 83-victory team. The Cardinals are always in contention – always. They won’t go away.

Houston’s team is stockpiled with quality players. Cincinnati’s is vastly improved. Milwaukee’s new kids (like Prince Fielder) and Pittsburgh’s (like Freddy Sanchez) beat the heck out of those 2006 Cubs call-ups. Each of those four franchises is every bit as championship-starved as the Cubs are.

The oft-forgotten handicap: Six teams vie for the playoffs in the National League Central. A club like the San Diego Padres needs to outplay only three other teams.

5. “Piniella will light a fire under them.”

Leo Durocher tried that “nice guys finish last” philosophy here. He got nowhere. Herman Franks harped and harangued. Lee Elia ranted and raved. Dusty Baker coaxed and cajoled. Piniella is a four-star general with a fine battle strategy but no army, exactly as they were.