South Carolina bumps up primary

WASHINGTON – South Carolina’s Republican Party will move its presidential primary forward to Jan. 19, sources said Wednesday, a decision almost certain to spark a cascade of calendar changes that could push the start of voting to New Year’s Day or even before Christmas.

The move, set to be announced today, is likely to shift the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucuses at least into early January, and other states are actively angling to stake out spots earlier in the process.

The maneuvering has injected a new note of uncertainty into what is already the earliest-starting presidential campaign in history, and top strategists for the presidential candidates said it would force them to overhaul their carefully crafted campaign plans.

Katon Dawson, who heads the South Carolina GOP, made the shift in order to retain the distinction of holding the “first in the South” presidential primary balloting. Dawson’s move was sparked by the Florida Legislature’s earlier decision to upstage South Carolina by moving their primary to Jan. 29. South Carolina had been scheduled to vote on Feb. 2.

Under some scenarios, the decision could lead Iowa to hold its caucuses in mid-December, creating an unprecedented situation in which convention delegates are selected in the calendar year prior to a presidential election.

The move is certain to trigger action by New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner, who is compelled by state law to set the date of his state’s primary at least a week before any other. That could push New Hampshire’s primary, currently scheduled for Jan. 22, to Tuesday, Jan. 8.

In Iowa, state law requires presidential nominating caucuses to be held at least eight days before any other voting takes place.

“We understand that us naming the date has consequences for New Hampshire,” said Dawson as he boarded a plane to New Hampshire on Wednesday, where he plans to make the announcement alongside Gardner. But he added: “We have an historic place in presidential politics. We’ve been on record for two years that we will be first in the South.”

The calendar changes are infuriating senior strategists for presidential candidates in both parties, who say it is forcing them to plot a path to the nomination through quicksand. The uncertainty is holding up decisions about where to campaign and devote resources.

“If you’re facing a moving chess board, it’s pretty difficult to know where to make your first move,” said Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University.

Lichtman said the earlier voting could create the longest-ever general election if the two party nominees are largely decided by mid-January. That would leave almost 10 months for the two candidates – and any third-party entrant – to battle for the presidency before the November elections in 2008.