Technology, expectations rise with the times

As a meteorologist (and one who does the job on television from time to time), I often hear comments and questions in conversation. Two in particular came up in an e-mail I recently received from a reader. One was the comment that forecasts don’t seem to be as accurate as they were decades ago. I will address this comment in today’s column. The reader also wondered why forecasts from different sources – say from The Spokesman-Review and from area television stations – can be so different. I will tackle that question next week.

When it comes to the notion that forecasts were much more accurate in the past, I believe that rapid advances in weather technology have really warped people’s perceptions on that issue. I have only been in the “weather” business for about 14 years. In that relatively short time I have seen forecast products evolve from the very simplistic, to the very detailed. I remember watching the weather reports growing up in Oklahoma in the early 1980s.

I believe that the forecast only went out to three days, with the last day showing something like “highs in the 70s.” When I actually took my first TV job in the mid-‘90s, we offered a five-day forecast. By the time I moved to my second TV job, we were told we had to compete with the other station that was putting out a seven-day forecast. These days, I reluctantly go on the air with a 10-day outlook. Realistically, unless you are living in Los Angeles, where there is no snow, no days below 32 degrees, an average of only one day of thunderstorms per year, and an average of 332 dry days per year, you are not going to get very reliable information in a 10-day forecast.

Every once in a while, a major storm will show its face in the weather charts that far in advance (like the recent ice storm in the Midwest). Most of the time however, the computer models which project atmospheric conditions that many days out, will flip-flop from one model run to another. With that in mind, why do we even bother to put out a 10-day forecast? Because the viewers ask for it – demand it.

Short-term forecasts are given in much greater detail these days, to the point where meteorologists can guide firefighters by providing crucial hourly humidity and wind information. Did you know that until the mid-1990s when Spokane became a forecast office, it was Boise’s responsibility to put out the forecast for North Idaho? And they did – one forecast was considered good for the entire Panhandle from Sandpoint to the Palouse. Today North Idaho is the responsibility of multiple forecast offices, including the ones in Spokane, Missoula and Boise, which put out numerous forecasts for the 11 different zones of the Panhandle. As technology has increased, people’s expectations have also risen dramatically. A forecast of rain this week across North Idaho with highs in the 40s won’t cut it. People want to know at what hour, exactly how much, and depending on elevation – what type of precipitation will fall – in their backyard. Today’s meteorologist might not be able to pinpoint the weather in your backyard, but I think we have the resources to give folks across the region a pretty good idea of what Mother Nature has in store, so that they can plan accordingly.