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Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Opinion

Questions for the coming year

Chuck Raasch Gannett News Service

New Year’s is a season of resolutions, but also of questions, and 2007 promises to bring a lot of those.

Here are five:

1. What of Iran and Syria?

Iraq’s two neighbors have been accused by the Bush administration of fomenting violence in Iraq. The study group headed by James Baker recommends that the United States have direct negotiations with both countries, but President Bush has stuck to high barriers for such talks, starting with Iran abandoning its nuclear ambitions.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s threats about Israel have been increasingly provocative. He suggested Israel be moved to Europe or destroyed, and he convened a conference questioning the Holocaust.

Will Ahmadinejad’s electoral setbacks at home trim his bellicosity or make him more provocative in 2007? Will the United Nations lose its resolve to get Iran to back away from its nuclear weapons ambitions? Will Syria and the United States assume a more conciliatory relationship?

2. Will Fidel Castro, reportedly in grave health, survive the year?

If he does die, what will the Communist holdout’s death mean for succession of power and Cuba’s relationship with the United States?

3. Will the United States capture or kill Osama bin Laden or any of his remaining top lieutenants in 2007?

If al-Qaeda’s figurehead leaders are still issuing threatening videos a year from now, their continued at-large status will be an issue in the middle of a presidential campaign season. The Bush administration’s biggest gift to any Republican candidate who wants to follow this president may be a high-profile capture or killing of top al-Qaeda figures.

4. Can Congress just get along?

The new Democratic majority and George W. Bush have starkly different interpretations of what the voters said about Iraq in the November elections that resulted in the first Democratic-controlled House in 12 years.

Some Democrats think they have a mandate to begin an immediate phased pullout from Iraq, while Bush says he thinks the message was that Americans want a strategy for victory. Those two positions are a prescription for major legislative strife in 2007.

However, there are areas where the Democratic leaders in Congress and Bush could find common ground. The first may be on immigration reform, where Bush’s inclination to provide a pathway for citizenship to illegal immigrants already in the country outrages GOP conservatives but is supported by moderate Republicans and many Democrats.

5. Who will emerge from this crazy and crowded presidential campaign field in 2007?

Illinois Democratic Sen. Barack Obama is this season’s hot commodity, but the Howard Dean experience should be a reminder of what happens to candidates who heat up too early. If Al Gore gets in — a possibility — the Democrats’ choices would change significantly. And Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., could break presidential fund-raising records in ‘07.

For the Republicans, the question is whether they go their usual route and elevate a nominee who seems next in line (John McCain in this instance) or choose a younger, less-tied-to-Washington candidate like ex-New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani or Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.