Will logic trump facts in final?

MELBOURNE, Australia – The logic goes like this: Fernando Gonzalez can beat Rafael Nadal, and Nadal has beaten Roger Federer. Why can’t Gonzalez upset Federer in the Australian Open final?

The facts go like this: Gonzalez is 0-9 against Federer.

Still, Gonzalez is not without hope Sunday against a No. 1 player who won three majors last year and is going for his 10th Grand Slam title.

Gonzalez has a strong forehand, plenty of nerve and a fresh game under a new coach. He is ranked No. 10, and he’s not called Speedy for nothing.

Gonzalez overpowered Tommy Haas 6-1, 6-3, 6-1 in the semifinals Friday, not making an unforced error in the first and third sets to reach his first Grand Slam final. Federer routed No. 6 Andy Roddick 6-4, 6-0, 6-2 Thursday night, calling it his best match in Melbourne.

The rifling forehand that Gonzalez used in his straight-sets quarterfinal upset of No. 2 Nadal was again on display against No. 12 Haas.

The Chilean pounded 18 forehand winners, some with a low, flat trajectory that barely grazed the net and others that looped and curled inside the lines. He had 42 winners in all, and only three unforced errors.

Federer has won nine of his 10 slam finals. This is his seventh consecutive Grand Slam final, tying a record set in 1934 by Jack Crawford.

Federer has topped the rankings for three years, and Gonzalez understands how high the bar has now been set.

“I’m playing the most important match in my life and he’s the best player of the last many years. He’s winning all the time,” Gonzalez said. “He has to lose sometime. I’m going to try to do it on Sunday.”

Gonzalez has improved his temperament, his backhand – where he once felt “a hole” on his left side – and his shot selection. The turnaround started last May when he began working with Larry Stefanki, who previously coached John McEnroe, Marcelo Rio and Yevgeny Kafelnikov.

In this event, Gonzalez has beaten former No. 1 Lleyton Hewitt, No. 5 James Blake and Nadal and is no longer vulnerable on big points. He has come a long way since his first-round exit last year, when he was seeded ninth and lost to American qualifier Alex Bogomolov Jr. in five sets.

“I cramped. I lost against a qualifier, playing really bad tennis. Maybe the worst match in my life. Not maybe; I think was,” Gonzalez said. “Maybe I was here like three or four days. Now I’m here like three weeks. It’s really nice.”

Gonzalez’s last two losses to Federer were in finals – at Basel and Madrid late last season. Federer lost only five matches in 2006, including four in finals to Nadal. Against everyone else, he was 91-1.

Gonzalez promised to use the same tactics that rattled Nadal and Hewitt.

“I never beat him, but in tennis you always have a new opportunity,” Gonzalez said. “I have a really nice opportunity now.”