Who’s the independent voter? Study provides some answers

WASHINGTON – Fred Wood, a Marietta, Ohio, retiree, voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and John F. Kerry in 2004. In last year’s midterm elections, he voted Republican for Senate and Democratic for governor. Is he on the fence for 2008? “You bet I am!” he said.

Mary Welch, a program manager in Appleton, Wis., twice supported Bush for president and voted Republican in last year’s hotly contested gubernatorial race. Looking ahead to 2008, she said, “At this point, I tend to lean toward the Republican Party.”

Julie McClure, a property appraiser in Bradenton, Fla., voted for Al Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. She would vote for almost any of the current crop of Democratic presidential candidates over any Republican nominee. “Particularly on the war, I side with the Democratic Party,” she said..

Wood, Welch and McClure all describe themselves as political independents. Wood is a classic swing voter, while Welch and McClure generally side with one party. They represent two of the five types of independents revealed in a new, in-depth study by the Washington Post in collaboration with the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University.

The study is a comprehensive examination of a broad segment of the electorate – about three in 10 voters call themselves independents – that is poised to play the role of political powerbroker in 2008. Independents split their votes between President Bush and Kerry in 2004 but shifted decisively to the Democrats in 2006, providing critical support in the Democratic takeover of the House and the Senate.

The new survey underscores the Republican Party’s problems heading into 2008. Fueled by dissatisfaction with the president and opposition to the Iraq war, independents continue to lean heavily toward the Democrats. Two-thirds say the war was not worth fighting, three in five think the United States cannot stabilize Iraq, and three in five believe that the campaign against terror can succeed without a clear victory in Iraq.

The power of independents could also be felt in other ways next year. The survey found frustration with political combat in Washington and widespread skepticism toward the major parties – perhaps enough to provide the spark for an independent candidacy by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

Seventy-seven percent of independents say they would seriously consider an independent presidential candidate, and a majority say they would consider supporting Bloomberg, whose recent shift in party registration from Republican to unaffiliated stoked speculation about a possible run in 2008.

Strategists and the media variously describe independents as “swing voters,” “moderates” or “centrists” who populate a sometimes-undefined middle of the political spectrum. That is true for some independents, but the survey reveals a significant range in the attitudes and behavior of Americans who adopt the label.

The Post-Kaiser-Harvard study was designed to probe more deeply into this increasingly influential portion of the electorate: who these voters are, why they remain independent, what they think about major issues and, of particular importance, how they differ from one another.

The survey data establish five categories of independents: closet partisans on the left and right; ticket-splitters in the middle; those disillusioned with the system but still active politically; ideological straddlers whose positions on issues draw from both left and right; and a final group whose members are mostly disengaged from politics.

What they share is an aversion to party labels. As Adele Starrs, an editor from Columbia, N.J., put it, “I can’t go down either side.”

Independents are already a significant force in American politics, and their numbers are growing: In most recent polls independents outnumber Republicans – but not Democrats – in the population.

Fifty years ago, independents accounted for roughly a quarter of all adults. Today that proportion is between three in 10 and four in 10 depending on the survey. In most states that have party registration, independents or those who decline to state a party preference are the fastest-growing segment of voters, according to Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate.

Independents mirror the population in terms of age, income and education. But they are disproportionately male. A majority of independents are men, while a majority of Democrats are women and the GOP is typically divided evenly between men and women.

Independents also are more secular than the overall electorate. Four in 10 in the new study would like to see religion have less influence on politics and public life than it does now. Almost a fifth say they have no religion.

Although independents are generally seen as occupying the political center, their growing discontent with Bush has pushed them increasingly toward the Democrats.

In the 2006 elections, independents split 57 percent to 39 percent for the Democrats, the largest margin either party has received from independents in a congressional election since national exit polls began measuring the House vote in 1976.

Three-quarters of independents in the Post-Kaiser-Harvard study describe themselves as either dissatisfied or downright angry at the policies of the Bush administration. Almost half, 48 percent, call Bush the worst modern president.

A major reason then and now for the tilt toward the Democrats is opposition to the Iraq war. Among the two-thirds of independents in the new survey who say the war was not worth fighting, most hold that view “strongly.”

Starrs, the New Jersey editor, once considered herself a Republican and voted for Bush in 2004. She now calls herself an independent, and she said the war was “the biggest factor” in her shift. “At the time I ranked other issues higher,” she said. “This election, I do not. Iraq is the number one issue for me in this election.”

Independents also are far closer to Democrats than to Republicans in their assessment of the national economy. Sixty-three percent of Republicans call the economy good or excellent. Just 35 percent of independents agree.

Given those attitudes on the overriding issues, it is not surprising that independents express more positive feelings about the Democratic Party. When asked to rate the national parties, 55 percent view the Democrats favorably, while 41 percent give the Republicans positive marks.

Independents broadly favor the Democrats on Iraq, health care, global warming, social issues such as abortion and gay marriage, corruption in government, managing the federal government and dealing with the deficit. They give the Democrats a narrower advantage on illegal immigration, taxes and the economy.

They rate the Republicans higher only on the campaign against terrorism.

Five categories of independents emerged from the analysis of the survey results:

“Deliberators,” who are classic swing voters.

“Disillusioned,” who are acutely upset with politics today.

“Dislocated,” who are both social liberals and fiscal conservatives.

“Disguised,” who are partisans on the left and right who behave almost identically to Democrats or Republicans.

“Disengaged,” who generally sit on the political sidelines.

Unlike most other independents, the Deliberators are generally satisfied with the political system and have positive views of the two parties. Two-thirds have voted about equally for Republican and Democratic candidates, making them perhaps the most significant group of swing voters in the electorate. At a time when other independents lean more heavily toward the Democrats, the Deliberators are a prime Republican target.

The Disillusioned are highly dissatisfied with the political system. Nine in 10 say the two-party system does not work for them. Many volunteer that “neither party” better represents their views on important issues, including more than seven in 10 who say so about their position on Iraq. They lean heavily Democratic, but they are also among the most open to an independent candidacy.

The ideologically Dislocated are far more likely to say that the Democrats better represent their views on social issues, while a majority assert that the government in Washington is doing too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses. They are also the least religious of any of the five groups.

Disguised partisans generally walk and talk like Democrats or Republicans – sometimes with even more passion. They reject party labels but usually back one side or the other.

“I generally don’t support Republicans; I definitely support Democrats the majority of the time. I’m an independent because I like to keep an open mind,” said Larry Parker, a day-care center director in Montpelier, Vt.

The Disengaged make up about a quarter of all independents and typically have little or no interest in politics. They are the least likely to be registered to vote, the most likely to have at most a high school education, and the youngest of any group. Four in 10 are under 30.

Two-thirds of all independents would seriously consider supporting a Democratic presidential candidate, while less than half say they would seriously consider voting for a Republican.

Melissa Stevenson, a homemaker from Three Rivers, Mich., voted twice for Bush but voted for Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm last year. As Bush’s second term nears an end, she is leaning toward the Democrats. “I tend to think it’s good to go back and forth,” she said.