Immigration reform survives challenges
WASHINGTON – The plan to overhaul the nation’s immigration system survived its most serious challenges Wednesday, when the Senate defeated amendments to disqualify hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants from legalization and to extend visas to hundreds of thousands more relatives of U.S. citizens.
By beating back challenges to the deal from the right and the left, the fragile, bipartisan coalition behind the “grand bargain” showed it is holding together as the legislation nears final passage – but barely.
One proposal, by Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, would have blocked legalization for a broad array of legal infractions, including scrapes with immigration courts. The other, by Sens. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., and Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., would have included more recent applicants to the pool of backlogged, family-based green-card applications that must be cleared under the bill. The Menendez-Hagel amendment would have granted as many as 833,000 more visas than the bill now offers.
The Senate will vote as early as tonight on whether to cut off debate on the bill and move to a final vote, possibly Friday night. For now, the bipartisan coalition appears to have the muscle to push it through.
“It’s holding fast,” said Sen. Mel Martinez, R-Fla., one of the chief architects of the legislation, which would couple a crackdown on future illegal immigration with generous new paths for illegal immigrants and legal migrants to stay and work in the country. “It’s as good as we could hope for right now.”
But the coalition is showing signs of fraying. Georgia’s two senators, Republicans Johnny Isakson and Saxby Chambliss, had helped forge the immigration deal, but they bolted from the coalition to back Cornyn’s amendment.
Republican leaders of the coalition had pledged to withdraw from the deal if the Menendez-Hagel amendment had passed, but in the end they defeated it only through a procedural move that forces the measure’s proponents to muster 60 votes. The 53-to-44 family-unification vote fell short of that threshold, but the majority vote could strengthen the hand of immigration advocates if the House and Senate ever sit down to work out a final bill.
Conservative opponents vowed Wednesday that will never happen. Two conservative pressure groups unveiled television and radio advertisements aimed at peeling Republicans from the coalition. And Senate Republican leaders and Senate leaders remained locked in a standoff over the demand of Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., that debate be cut off tonight. “Enthusiasm is waning,” said Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., one of the bill’s most ardent foes.
An analysis by the Congressional Budget Office – Congress’ influential scorekeeper – complicated the calculations even further Wednesday.
The CBO concluded that the cost of the bill in immigration-law enforcement, border controls and federal benefits to immigrants would be more than offset in tax payments – especially Social Security tax payments – from newly legalized workers. White House officials latched on to that finding as they continued to seek GOP support for the bill.
But the CBO also raised questions about whether the legislation would work to bring undocumented workers out of the shadows and to stem the flow of illegal immigrants. A proposed guest-worker program would bring hundreds of thousands of migrants who would stay illegally once their visas expired, the CBO said.
Of the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants now in the country, nearly a third – 3.6 million – would probably not attain legal status under the bill, the analysis said. And, it said, even if the bill’s law-enforcement and employee-verification provisions are implemented, the annual flow of illegal immigrants into the country would be reduced by only a quarter.