What’s been absent so long in Iraq is a sense of possibility … the possibility that things could improve.

Last week something happened that offers at least a chance of changing Iraq’s deadly dynamics. Condoleezza Rice announced the United States will participate in two meetings organized by senior Iraqi officials that will be attended by all of Iraq’s neighbors – including Iran and Syria. The first meeting will take place in Baghdad on March 10.

Why is this so important? Almost everyone, including top U.S. officials and military commanders, knows that force alone can’t end the violence in Baghdad. Iraq’s neighbors – Shiite Iran and Sunni Arab states – have meddled in the sectarian war that is destroying Iraq and threatens to infect the whole region.

Only intense regional diplomacy, with strong U.S. backing, can convince Iran and Arab states to help Iraq rather than fuel the fighting. But diplomacy won’t work unless two of the key players have direct contacts. I refer, of course, to the United States and Iran.

It’s not yet clear whether the meeting in Baghdad will set the stage for such contacts. White House spokesman Tony Snow went out of his way to deflect suggestions there’d be any one-on-one talks between U.S. and Iranian officials. There have been regional conferences in the past attended by both Iranians and Americans. The most notable was in 2004 in Egypt, where Secretary of State Colin Powell was seated next to Iranian foreign minister Kamal Kharazzi at dinner, but stuck to diplomatic chit-chat throughout the meal.

There is at least the possibility, however, that these talks might lead to more serious U.S.-Iranian contacts. Rice made a point of drawing public attention to the upcoming meetings.

True, there has been much recent U.S. saber-rattling at Iran, including remarks by President Bush and Vice President Cheney. Yet some senior U.S. officials suggest the pressure on Iran is aimed at helping the United States to negotiate from a position of strength, at a time when Tehran sees America as weakened by the chaos in Iraq. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates put it this way last month: “We need some leverage, it seems to me, before we engage with the Iranians. And I think at some point engagement probably makes sense.”

Another hopeful sign is the central role Iraq played in organizing the meetings. Iraq’s talented foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari worked tirelessly to get delegates from neighboring countries to meet in Baghdad to discuss stabilizing his country.

In a phone interview from Stockholm, Zebari told me: “This is an opening to ease regional tensions and show that Iraq can help its neighboring countries.”

Iraqi officials have traveled the region, warning Tehran that the Iraqi government doesn’t want Iranians to fight their battles with the United States on Iraqi soil. They’ve told Egyptian and Saudi officials that, if they’re nervous about the expanding influence of Shiite Persians, they should help strengthen the Iraqi government. After all, that government is led by Arabs who, while Shiite, are not the Iranian puppets that many in the Arab world assume.

Foreign Minister Zebari made clear his goal for this week’s session: to get Iraq’s neighbors “to commit to security cooperation with Baghdad.” This means that instead of helping Sunni or Shiite militias, the neighbors should cooperate with the central government of Iraq. The Iraqi foreign minister also hopes the neighbors will finally see they need to take that government seriously.

Let me add, however, that Baghdad can’t go it alone. Prime Minister al-Maliki is weak, and the Iraqi government doesn’t talk with one voice. Iran fears Sunni Arab leaders want to facilitate a Sunni restoration in Iraq; Saudi Arabia fears expanding Iranian power. All sides are uncertain about Washington’s intentions.

It will take very skilled diplomacy to find a regional formula to allay these fears and prevent a wider religious war. Despite the presence at the talks of diplomats from the United Nations and the Arab League, China, Russia and Europe, the key will be U.S. intentions.

This is the moment of truth: Does the United States want a change of behavior in Tehran, or a change of regime? If the latter, no regional formula for stabilizing Iraq can be found. If the former, then U.S. officials must find a way to talk directly to Iranians. These talks could be held on a separate track from U.N. efforts to deal with Iran’s nuclear energy program.

The Baghdad talks provide the opening for such a dialogue. A second meeting will likely be held in April, with Rice and Iranian national security adviser Ali Larijani in attendance.

Now is the moment when the president must decide whether he truly wants to pursue regional diplomacy to save Iraq. And Rice will have a crucial say in that decision. Skilled Iraqi diplomacy has set the stage, but it’s time for Rice to play a starring role.