Expect dousings come spring

Spring officially began on Tuesday, and many of us already are eager for the warm, sunny days.

But who could forget the soggy spring of 2006? That particular season was the second wettest in recorded history.

We once again should see plenty of moisture this spring, but it won’t be nearly as wet as last year. Between now and early April, much of the Inland Northwest will continue to endure a series of fast-moving storm systems that will bring occasional rain showers and, possibly, an isolated thunderstorm or two.

There’s still the chance of some snow during the overnight hours above 2,500 feet.

Despite some expected wet weather in early April, it does appear that the fourth month of 2007 will be drier than normal. Temperatures will start out a bit cooler than average, but much warmer weather is expected toward the middle to the end of the month.

As mentioned in previous weeks, May and June should be a bit cooler and wetter than normal. However, I do expect to see temperatures well above average levels around the middle of each month.

The number of thunderstorms expected this spring and summer across the Inland Northwest should be much higher than the nine days seen in 2006. This year, I’m predicting approximately 13 to 15 days in Spokane, with thunder, heavy rains, hail and damaging winds about 17 to 20 days in the Spokane Valley and 20 to 22 days with thunderstorms in Coeur d’Alene.

In normal years there are 11 days with thunderstorm activity. June should be the most active month of the entire season.

Don’t be too surprised to see at least one or two days with severe weather conditions.

The summer of 2006 across the Inland Northwest ranked as one of the driest summers in recorded history. It was Spokane’s sixth-driest summer on record and Coeur d’Alene’s most-arid period in history.

Not only was last summer dry, but it was also very hot. In 2006, the airport recorded 30 days with highs at or above 90. Coeur d’Alene gauged a remarkable 38 days at or above 90.

Both marks are near double the normal.

During an average summer we typically see 19 days at the airport and approximately 22 days in the Spokane Valley at or above 90 degrees.

July was certainly a torrid period, with almost half of that month (14 days) recording temperatures at or above 90. In fact, July 23 was the hottest day, with a high of 102.

We actually saw three days in a row with highs at or above the century mark. In Coeur d’Alene, there were four days in a row with scorching triple-digit maximum readings of 101 to 104 between July 21 and 24 – mighty hot indeed!

We’ll probably need our air conditioners again this summer. As things now stand, I’m predicting at least 25 to 30 afternoons this summer with highs of 90 or above. There should be a couple of egg-frying days above the century mark as well .

The hottest periods should be in early July and again in late July and early August.

Fire season across the Inland Northwest may be tough again this year, as we’ll see long stretches of dry weather. But I expect fire conditions to be far worse across Southern California and the desert Southwest due to severe drought.

We’ve seen several major blazes in that region already.

During El Niño seasons, that particular area normally receives above-normal amounts of moisture as the subtropical jet stream instensifies. But in late 2006 and early 2007, most of El Niño’s moisture stayed 600 miles to the north, across our region, a phenomenon that occurs only 30 percent of the time during the warmer than normal sea-surface temperature event.