Prediction: This site will succeed

Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic presidential nomination – at least that’s what hundreds of users of new Web startup Predictify think.

Launched early last month and co-founded by a 26-year-old Deer Park native, Predictify Inc. aims to harness the prognostic power of groups of everyday people, allowing them to forecast the outcome of specific questions.

“Predictify is about aggregating that wisdom into accurate, meaningful predictions,” said CEO Parker Barrile, a Gonzaga Prep alumnus who is currently pursuing a master’s degree in business administration at Stanford University.

Some users may even earn money for their predictive prowess. People can pay to pose “premium” questions that cost $1 per response for as many as 10,000 responses, Barrile said. Predictors may earn a portion of that money based on their expertise and long-term accuracy, whether it’s about the price of Apple iPods or prison terms for NFL stars.

Two-hundred users recently more accurately foretold the Consumer Confidence Index for October than Wall Street economists, for example, Barrile said.

At least six users had earned more than $10, as of last week, according to Predictify’s online community rankings.

“The level of activity on the site has really exceeded our expectations,” Barrile said. “Humans love to prognosticate. It’s human nature.”

Businesses might use Predictify to “gain insight into future product releases, sales forecasts, consumer sentiment, or market trends,” according to Predictify, which draws on research into the accuracy of prediction by large groups compared to small groups of experts.

Predictify resembles existing online “prediction markets” or games – such as the Iowa Electronic Markets, Hollywood Stock Exchange or TradeSports – that allow people to speculate about results of certain events. But because online gambling is illegal in the U.S., Predictify doesn’t require a wager.

Based in Menlo Park, Calif., Predictify has four full-time employees in addition to Barrile and co-founder Michael Agnich. It received startup funding in April from an undisclosed investor, Barrile said.

Posing a premium question allows posters to receive private results and predictors’ demographic information. The site doesn’t display ads and earns revenues from premium questions, Barrile said.

“Predictify is very simple and easy,” Barrile said. “Anyone can come on the site and, in a matter of minutes, be making predictions on subjects that they are familiar with.”