U.S. supportive, but uncertain on Musharraf

WASHINGTON – The Bush administration is betting that President Pervez Musharraf can survive the crisis in Pakistan if he moves decisively to lift emergency rule and hold elections over the next two months, despite new U.S. intelligence concerns about the dangers of long-term instability or, worse, a political vacuum, U.S. officials say. Timing is the key, they add.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Sunday called on Musharraf to restore constitutional rule “as soon as possible.” The administration is considering sending a senior official to Islamabad this week to tell him he must urgently rescind restrictions on the media, civil society and opposition politicians, which could discredit any January elections – and endanger Pakistan’s stability and his political future, the sources said.

But the United States is also hedging its bets, with the U.S. Embassy reaching out to civil society leaders, military officials, community leaders, and political parties to build options – just in case, U.S. officials say. “We don’t want to be seen to be looking, but we want to make sure we talk to a wide array of people,” said one official, who requested anonymity.

In the past week, the administration’s position has begun to evolve from a commitment to stand by Musharraf to an emphasis on the will of the Pakistani people and unnamed “others.”

“We encourage moderate political forces in Pakistan to work together. Now if that means President Musharraf and former prime minister (Benazir) Bhutto or others, then that is a decision for those people to make. It’s a decision for the Pakistani people to make,” State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said.

On ABC’s “This Week” Sunday, Rice again shifted the focus from Musharraf. “This is not a personal matter about President Musharraf. This is about the Pakistani people, and the United States has been dedicated to helping the Pakistani people come to a more democratic path,” she said.

Rice emphasized long-term goals rather than loyalty to the top U.S. ally in counterterrorism efforts since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. “We’re standing with democratic principles in Pakistan when we say there have to be free and fair elections. We’re standing with principles of moderation when we try to work to bring moderate forces together,” she said. “If the suggestion is that we somehow now abandon a course that could lead back to a path of democracy for Pakistan, I think that would be a mistake.”

U.S. policymakers are focused on the two-month window, through the elections Musharraf promised by Jan. 9, for the Pakistani leader to restore the rule of law. The key will be moves by Musharraf to start a “steady progression” of steps to signal a return to constitutional rule, said the U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity. “He must demonstrate light at the end of the tunnel.”

Yet a nervousness permeates U.S. policy after only one week of crisis, which has increasingly diverted attention from regional counterterrorism to Pakistan’s internal politics. After the police siege around Bhutto’s home and arrest of thousands of lawyers on Friday, U.S. officials worried about whether Musharraf can last until elections play out. “We don’t know what this is going to look like next week, never mind three months from now,” said another administration official who requested anonymity.

U.S. allies in Europe and Asia are pessimistic, with some suggesting the U.S. has put its head in the sand on Pakistan. “This could go south very, very quickly. It’s one of the worst international crises we have had – and I include Iraq in that statement,” a European diplomat said. “The United States is more tolerant of Musharraf. To the Americans, he’s not perfect, but he’s the only Musharraf they have.”