Long-range forecast right on
For the past couple of months, all signs were pointing to a cooler and wetter than normal spring. This is one long range forecast that has definitely hit the bull’s-eye.
With the exception of the warm weather last weekend, high temperatures for every day in April so far have been below normal, sometimes by as much as 17 degrees. Though high temperatures last Sunday were in the mid-70s, the mild weather was extremely short-lived.
By Monday, temperatures had fallen dramatically. The high temperature occurred just after midnight Monday morning (57 degrees), and afternoon readings were in the low to mid-40s. Along with the colder temperature came wet weather, with the Spokane and Coeur d’Alene area receiving between .25 and .50 inches of rain. But the coldest air arrived Tuesday morning, along with snow, up to an inch of accumulation in the Coeur d’ Alene area!
After a brief midweek warm up, here we are again dealing with more winterlike weather. Surprisingly, although seasonal snowfall totals have made their mark in the record books, our April snowfall was about average as of last Wednesday. I mentioned in last week’s column that Coeur d’Alene’s latest recorded measurable snow was 2 inches on May 6, 1950. Records for Spokane indicate that in the last 112 years, snow has fallen as late as May 14 (.4 inches), with an unbelievable 3.5 inches as late as May 11 (year unknown).
Despite the fact that the spring season can’t quite get a foothold across the area, other “seasons” are on the horizon in the next couple of months. Hurricane season officially begins on June 1. William M. Gray, an emeritus professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University and the man who pioneered the concept of seasonal hurricane forecasting, put out his latest forecast for the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season with the help of research associate Philip J. Klotzbach. He predicts an above average hurricane season with a total of 15 named storms and eight hurricanes. An average season produces 10 named storms and six hurricanes, and last year’s season was near average.
Hitting us a bit closer to home will be the start of fire weather season in June. Recently, my husband (a lead forecaster for the National Weather Service) was interviewed by a local television station about the potential impacts of this snowy winter and spring season on the upcoming fire weather season. He explained that it wouldn’t have any impact at all.
Unfortunately, when it comes to fire weather potential in the summer, there is little Mother Nature can do in previous months to lessen the potential for dangerous wildfires during the summer months. The number one factor in determining the severity of the 2008 fire weather season will be the amount of precipitation received during the normally very dry summer months.
In the spring, it is almost a lose-lose situation. While cool wet weather may delay the onset of fire weather season for a few weeks, there can be some negative impacts to above normal spring precipitation. Flourishing plant life in the spring may serve only to provide more fuel for the fire if drier than normal summer conditions follow.
On the other hand, an abnormally dry spring can put the area in a moisture deficit situation which only hastens the drying out of fuels in the summer months. What we would hope for would be a few extra cool and rainy days during July and August. This appears unlikely, as the latest summer forecast issued by the Climate Prediction Center calls for above-average temperatures and below normal precipitation for much of the Western U.S.