Milder patterns are on the way

Since mid-February, our weather pattern has changed from a snowy and cold period to drier conditions with temperatures generally near normal levels. This cycle should end around the middle of March. Expect below-normal precipitation and near- to above-normal temperatures between now and late March.

Temperatures are expected to briefly climb well into the 50s between now and mid-March. However, around late March and early April, highs are likely to rise to above-normal levels along with increasing amounts of moisture. As mentioned in previous articles, rising temperatures combined with strong winds and moderate to heavy rainfall could prompt mountain snowpacks to melt too quickly, leading to flooding. At press time, there still were 8 to 10 feet of snow in the higher elevations. Hopefully, we’ll continue to see mild daytime temperatures and cool overnight lows cause a very slow melting of the snow.

The La Niña sea-surface temperature pattern in the south-central Pacific has been weakening but is still influencing global weather patterns. Until recently, La Niña was strengthening, which led to the heavy snowfalls across the Northwest and Northeast. The cooler-than-normal sea-surface temperature phenomenon is partially responsible for the frigid weather across the north-central U.S. Within the last 10 days, record lows down to minus 30 and minus 40 degrees have been reported in North Dakota and Minnesota.

With La Niña still in control, it looks like we’ll have a wetter and cooler than normal spring overall in our part of the country. However, there are recent signs of new warming along the West Coast of South America. It’s too early to tell, but don’t be too surprised that we may soon be hearing about a new El Niño forming in that part of the world around the fall.

Many folks who are planning trips or vacations this spring have asked for a spring forecast for the rest of the U.S. The wetter and cooler weather pattern will persist from Northern California and northward through the middle of March. Wet snows will be likely at times at elevations above 3,000 feet.

The southern third of the U.S. from Southern California eastward through Arizona and New Mexico will be turning drier in the middle of March. Texas and the chronically dry Southeastern states will be both warmer and drier than normal for at least the early portion of the spring season.

The northern Great Plains, south-central Canada and the Upper Midwest will see widely-fluctuating weather patterns of extremes. After March 10 temperatures will slowly warm north of Interstate 80. Parts of the country have already seen severe weather with tornadic activity and a record number of fatalities. More severe conditions are expected across the Midwest and parts of the deep South through the middle portion of the spring season, maybe longer.

During the first six weeks of the spring, most of the U.S. and Canada east of the Rocky Mountains will see a milder and wetter weather pattern, particularly north of I-80. From I-70 south, however, in the already ice-damaged central and southern Great Plains, we should see much drier conditions develop with near-record warm temperatures at times, particularly in late April and early May.