Democrats optimistic about unseating Sali

Idaho Democrats believe the 2008 election is the party’s best shot to finally regain a congressional seat – a hope bolstered by recent fundraising reports that show Republican U.S. Rep. Bill Sali owes more money than he has in the bank.

Democrats really could win this time, Boise State University political science professor Gary Moncrief said.

“If Democrats ever have a chance, one would think it is this year,” Moncrief said.

He applied that view specifically to the race for the seat held by Sali, the attorney and former state lawmaker elected to the 1st Congressional District in 2006.

Democratic challenger Walt Minnick, a millionaire and former CEO who ran one of Idaho’s largest companies, has more than twice as much campaign money in the bank as Sali – and no debt.

Sali is “viewed as a weak candidate, partly indicated by the fact he’s raised so little money for an incumbent,” Moncrief said.

Sali’s campaign shrugs off the Democratic optimism. It’s early in the race, the campaign says, and Sali is doing well: He took in $66,000 in donations last week at a fundraiser in Washington, D.C., part of House Republican Leader John Boehner’s Regain our Majority Program.

Sali is a recipient of Boehner’s contributions because the National Republican Congressional Committee named Sali one of the top 10 most-threatened members of Congress.

The GOP declaration is in response to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee targeting Sali for ouster, which means more money for Minnick’s campaign.

Minnick also got a boost when Larry Grant, who would have been his Democratic challenger in the May primary, dropped out of the race last month to strengthen the party’s chance of getting Sali booted from Congress.

Some of the Democrats’ hope is attributed to the momentum from the presidential campaign and Barack Obama’s popularity, which drew record numbers to the February Democratic caucuses.

“We are raising a lot more money, and the reason is people are a lot more interested this year in change,” said Chuck Oxley, Idaho Democratic Party spokesman, using a word often associated with the Obama campaign. “This is a change election.”

Democrats still have to work to raise funds, Oxley said. “It’s not raining dollar bills.”

Minnick has raised $639,190 including $108,000 he personally donated to get the campaign started, according to recent reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. Most of the money – $515,055 – came from individual donors, with only 2 percent from political action committees, the report said. At the end of March, he still had $327,910 in the bank.

Sali has raised $405,468, of which 72 percent came from political action committees and $112,707 from individual donors.

He has $124,192 in the bank, but $144,677 in debt – largely unpaid bills from his 2006 campaign. That money is owed to consultants and staff, including his family members.

Sali campaign spokesman Wayne Hoffman said campaign debt is common, especially in a congressman’s first term. Sali is working to pay off his obligation and has decreased the amount by $100,000 since the end of 2006.

Sali is known as a fierce fiscal conservative. When asked how the congressman reconciles carrying campaign debt when he wants Congress to avoid deficit, Hoffman said: “That’s like mixing apples and sheep. There is no question Bill Sali’s conservative credentials are unquestioned. He’s voted against bigger government, higher taxes and more government spending.”

The nonprofit, nonpartisan Campaign Legal Center said debt is common but eventually a candidate must pay it off.

“Having outstanding debt is not illegal, and it’s probably not unusual,” said Tara Malloy, associate legal counsel for the center, based in Washington, D.C.

She said the spirit of the federal law is to make sure that candidates are paying off their debt and that vendors aren’t giving campaigns preferential treatment, which at some point could be viewed as a corporate subsidy.

Moncrief, the BSU professor, said debt doesn’t necessarily matter to the general voter or to contributors.

He said the Sali race, which includes the May primary where he’ll face GOP challenger Matthew Salisbury, isn’t about how much money the congressman raises. It’s about how much outside interests, such as the conservative anti-tax lobby Club for Growth, spend on his behalf.

The Club for Growth and the National Republican Congressional Committee spent more than $1 million on pro-Sali ads attacking Grant, his 2006 opponent.

So far, the Club for Growth doesn’t plan to put any money toward Sali because its goal is to focus on getting new conservatives elected to Congress and not fight for incumbents. The exception is four re-election races in other states, spokeswoman Nachama Soloveichik said.

The club knows Sali hasn’t raised a large amount of cash and that he has debt and a well-funded Democratic opponent.

“It’s a fairly conservative district and we think Sali should be able to hold his seat,” Soloveichik said.

Yet that doesn’t mean the club won’t reassess its stance during the general election, if Sali needs an extra boost.

Lt. Gov. Jim Risch, meanwhile, has nearly $1 million in the bank for his bid to replace Larry Craig in the U.S. Senate.

Risch has raised two times as much as his main Democratic challenger, former U.S. Rep. Larry LaRocco, who has raised $553,199 and has $253,706 in the bank.

Risch’s money includes a $380,000 personal loan.

LaRocco spokesman Dean Ferguson contends that Risch loaned himself as much as he could without triggering the “Millionaire’s Amendment,” which would allow LaRocco and the GOP primary opponents to triple the amount they can receive from individual contributors, to $6,900.

Ferguson said that’s a sign that the Republicans, both in Idaho and nationally, are worried about losing the Senate seat to a Democrat.

Risch refused Monday to specifically discuss the Millionaire’s Amendment. He views his personal contribution as his way of “giving back” to the state.

“On our financial stuff we have complied with the law absolutely,” Risch said. “I’ve got lawyers and accountants that are keeping that on track.”