Snow should arrive by mid-December

As we head into December next week, many people are asking, “When is it going to snow?” Only traces have been seen in parts of the lower elevations since the beginning of November.

The winter of 2007-’08 was the second-snowiest at the Spokane International Airport, with 92.6 inches. In the northwestern part of Coeur d’Alene, a record 172.6 inches fell. Places like Rathdrum, Sprit Lake and Athol reported more than 200 inches of snow for the season.

Despite the heavy amounts, last season’s record and near-record snows did get off to a relatively late start. Spokane International Airport did not see its first inch of snow until Nov. 26. However, once it started, the season didn’t end until June. Though I do expect the snows to start increasing in December, amounts for this season should be much lower than what we received last winter.

Global weather patterns last year were influenced by La Niña, the cooler-than-normal, sea-surface temperature pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean. This year, however, ocean temperatures warmed up to near-normal levels, or La Nada. The abnormal warming of sea-surface temperatures creates an El Niño pattern. The latest information indicates that the chances of a new El Niño forming within the next several months are very slim. The odds do increase a bit for the formation of a new La Niña in early 2009, but only time will tell.

During La Nada (between El Niño and La Niña) winters, snowfall totals within the last 15 years have ranged from 80.5 inches in 1996-’97 to only 19.7 inches in 1993-’94. Other winter snowfalls during a La Nada included 55.0 inches in the 2003-’04 season, 63.4 inches in 2001-’02 and 27.3 inches in 2005-’06.

A strong ridge of high pressure should continue to give us drier-than-normal weather for the next few weeks. However, we should see a major pattern change around the middle of December.

Cold and snowier-than-normal conditions are expected from the middle of next month to the end of January. The normal December snow at the airport is 15.1 inches. Coeur d’Alene’s average is 19.3 inches. The chances of a white Christmas in our region are still slightly better than 50/50, assuming we get our major weather change.

January and perhaps early February will likely be colder than normal, with sub-zero readings possible in the first two weeks of 2009. The mercury could dip to as low as minus 20 degrees in parts of North Idaho and near minus 30 degrees in Western Montana.

And, Happy Thanksgiving to one and all.