The real presidential face-off

NEW YORK – The method is far from scientific, but Halloween stores are predicting the winner in the presidential election, and there’s no exit polling needed – only political mask sales.

Halloween suppliers say sales of masks of presidential candidates have predicted the winner in the last several campaigns. So far, that’s good news for Barack Obama, whose mask was outselling John McCain’s in Spirit Halloween and iParty stores and online at Amazon and BuyCostumes.com.

But this year’s Halloween campaign has a dark horse: Sarah Palin. Because of her relatively late announcement as a vice presidential candidate, costume supppliers were unprepared.

“The costume manufacturers scrambled to identify a wig in their line that would work for her style and truthfully no one had anything that was exactly perfect but I know they’re working on it,” said Dorice Dionne, co-founder of iParty. “It’s the same story for the eyeglasses. But we’re making do with traditional beehive wigs and granny glasses for now and they’re selling.”

With such a long election cycle, and a hot presidential race, many of the stores stocked their shelves before the nominees had been decided. That means plenty of Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton masks to go around.

Meanwhile, iParty had to order more Palin-esque wigs for its 50 stores. BuyCostumes.com came up with a 99 cent paper mask for Palin.

At the top of the ticket, Obama had 68 percent of early presidential mask sales at Spirit Halloween and 55 percent at BuyCostumes.com; both companies claim their mask sales have predicted past winners. But of course, wearing a mask is not always an indicator of support.

“As unreliable as some polls can be, this would be a really bad polling device,” said Robert Thompson, director of the Bleier Center for Television and Popular Culture at Syracuse University.

Palin might also be the easiest costume to pull off without a mask, he notes. McCain looks like a regular old man, he said, while someone darkening his or her skin to be Obama may be accused of wearing blackface.

For Palin, the best thing people can do is “a hockey jersey and some lipstick and your hair up in a bun,” says Steven Silverstein, President and CEO of Spirit Halloween, a seasonal Halloween retailer with more than 600 locations.

Obama fan Ashley Peterson, 25, of Boston, is adding a baby doll and toy gun to her Palin costume. Her boyfriend is going as McCain and she is trying to convince a friend to be Bristol, Sarah Palin’s pregnant teenage daughter.

“We’re completely mocking them,” she said.

And consider that for women, it’s a rare opportunity to dress as a candidate on the national ticket.

“I’m not going to be as good as Tina Fey,” said Stacy Reno, 34, of Decatur, Ga., referring to the comedian who impersonated Palin on “Saturday Night Live.” But she says her hair and olive complexion resemble the Alaska governor.

Still, with Halloween a few days before Election Day, some people are dressing up like a candidate to show their support.

“I’m a huge fan of McCain,” said Gerald Souza, 22, of Plymouth, Mass., adding that he is searching for someone to be Cindy McCain. He said he is going to speak about McCain’s foreign policy approach while in character. “I think it will be something different showing up with lines on my neck looking like an old guy.”

Obama fan Ari Entin, 28, of New York City, is hoping to get more than a reaction to his costume.

“My dream this year is to hope my costume influences people before the election,” he said.