Sunspot numbers starting to rise
Beginning Oct. 10, sunspot numbers were finally beginning to increase. An average of 35 solar storms were observed from Oct. 10 through 17. The highest number was 70 sunspots on Oct. 12. But the weekend of Oct. 18-19 saw the solar numbers return to zero.
Remember, August of 2008 had absolutely no visible sunspots on the surface of the sun. The last month that was totally devoid of sunspot activity was June 1913, nearly a century ago.
Sunspots are storms on the sun. During the late 1990s and early 2000s, our sun was considered to be extremely active with a high number of solar storms. At that time, Earth’s temperature was climbing at a dramatic rate. But global temperatures started dropping late last year as sunspot activity was practically nonexistent.
If the sunspot numbers stay much lower than usual, we’re likely to see another cold and snowy winter season throughout the Northern Hemisphere, including here in the Inland Northwest.
The once weak El Niño, the warmer than normal sea-surface temperature event in the south-central Pacific Ocean, may soon be replaced by the cooler La Niña in the next several months. El Niño winters in the Inland Northwest are often milder with less snow.
The first half of this October was one of the coldest and driest such periods on record across the Inland Northwest, including all of North Idaho. The weekend of Oct. 11-12 saw dozens of record low readings in the region.
Record early season snowfalls buried parts of eastern Montana last week. Mystic Lake gauged a whopping 16 inches of snow on Oct. 10. Slightly more than 11 inches was measured the same day at Red Lodge, Mont.
Our first measurable snowfall of the 2008-09 winter season in the lowlands should still arrive sometime around Veterans Day – Nov. 11 – or during the subsequent full moon cycle ending Nov. 18.
The chances of a brilliant white Christmas across the Inland Northwest, even at the lower elevations, are better than 50 percent.
As far as this winter’s temperatures are concerned, things still look a bit milder than usual for the season. Our only subzero weather should be in “the dead of winter” during the middle of January.