Sales numbers may give auto industry new life

SAN FRANCISCO – General Motors is expected to put the brakes on a painful slump Tuesday when it rolls out its October sales numbers, heading a batch of monthly reports that could mark the onset of a gradual industry revival.

“As economic conditions improve, there’s a renewed sense of optimism and momentum building,” said J.D. Power and Associates analyst Jeff Schuster. “While 2009 has been a difficult year, this crisis will lead to innovation and efficiency gains, ultimately creating a healthier industry.”

Overall, J.D. Power is looking for the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales to come in at 10.3 million cars and trucks.

While that would represent a slight pullback from a year ago, it would still be the best year-over-year comparison in 17 months, not including the federal “cash for clunkers” program.

Separately, Edmunds.com issued similar targets Thursday, with Hyundai’s 38 percent improvement leading the way. Nissan Motors and Honda Motor Co. are also expected to hand in improved sales.

But perhaps most notably, GM will likely unveil better monthly numbers for the first time in more than a year and a half, thanks to liberal spending on advertising and incentives, according to Edmunds.com.

“We should certainly see some strong market-share gains for GM in October,” according to Edmunds analyst Jessica Caldwell. “If we don’t, that would be some really scary news considering the aggressive marketing push the company has made this month.”

Edmunds.com expects a 5.7 percent improvement for GM, while Chrysler and its dearth of new products occupies the other end of the spectrum with a 31.4 percent retreat.

Chrysler’s future will become more clear when Fiat’s Sergio Marchionne lays out his grand plans for the partnership next week outside of Detroit.

Ford Motor Co., which has drawn praise for avoiding government aid while rolling out a strong new lineup, is seen showing a 3.5 percent decline.