Nations hesitant to urge Assad ouster
Many countries fearful of who would replace leader in Syria
CAIRO – Despite the growing number of condemnations of Syria’s five-month campaign against anti-government protesters, no foreign government has called for President Bashar Assad’s removal from power.
The United States, European and Latin American nations, Turkey, and Arab states all have criticized the offensive that’s turned nightly news from Syria into a montage of dead protesters at an especially sensitive time, during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. Still, none of those players – and not even Israel – has called for Assad’s ouster, apparently out of fear over who would replace him.
Analysts say the reason for the hesitance lies in Syria’s touchy sectarian demographics and the lack of a cohesive opposition that could result in a protracted civil war were Assad to be toppled.
There’s also skepticism in the West and throughout the region that Assad can be defeated – at least anytime soon – by a protest movement with no identified leader and whose participants come with a range of competing ideologies, especially amid reports that the number of demonstrators has dwindled since the government’s fierce Ramadan offensive began last week.
The influential business class has yet to abandon Assad, and, so far, there’s no wave of high-level defections from the military or government.
On Tuesday, commentators were discussing the dismissal of Syrian Defense Minister Ali Habib, reportedly over his balking at the government crackdown that’s now estimated to have killed up to 2,000 people. Supporters of the Syrian opposition interpreted the episode as a sign of dissent within the defense apparatus, but still cautioned that unseating Assad would take more fissures in his inner circle, a much more unified opposition front and several more months, if not longer, of sustained protests.
Despite criticism of the crackdown, anxiety over a collapse of the 40-year-old Assad regime covers a range of fears.
The United States and other Western powers worry that Islamists could fill the power vacuum. Turkey’s Islamist-led government is upset with the bloodshed next door, but also fearful of an emboldened Kurdish minority whose push for greater rights could spread across the border to Turkey’s own disgruntled population of Kurds. Israel, meanwhile, isn’t keen on a new Syrian government that could push more aggressively for the return of the Golan Heights.
“The United States is afraid of a political void in the area that might affect Israel,” said Gamal Zayda, managing editor of Al-Ahram, Egypt’s most widely circulated newspaper. “And, I must remind you, neither Assad nor his father shot one bullet toward Israel. He didn’t push to restore the Golan Heights. He’s guaranteed, and they’re not sure who would come after him.”