Analysis: Tournaments make, break
KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Yes, teams can bust bracket moves during conference tournaments.
When Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith, the selection committee chairman, stands before the CBS camera today to explain some of his group’s five-day exercise, look for him to say some of the final teams identified for the tournament won their way in over the past couple of days.
And we’ll know precisely who they are because of the expanded bracket. The last four at-large teams will be facing off in Dayton, Ohio. The two winners will complete the 11th or 12th lines on the bracket.
The guess here is at least one of those teams had a good weekend at Conseco Fieldhouse this week.
The Big Ten tournament sprang plenty of surprises that will help and hurt that conference.
Michigan State, Michigan and Penn State have all collected statement victories. The Spartans, among the nation’s steadiest programs, looked liked an outsider for much of the Big Ten season. But a nice finish puts coach Tom Izzo’s team squarely in the field.
Michigan fell to the Buckeyes on Saturday, but pencil in the Wolverines, who have won seven of their last 10.
One of the selection show’s biggest surprises could be the inclusion of Penn State. The Nittany Lions may have turned back time with a 36-33 victory over Wisconsin, but they picked up the pace in Saturday’s victory over Michigan State.
Style points aren’t important this time of year, victories over power teams are, and Penn State is my last team in the field.
The rally of Big Ten bubble teams comes at the expense of the Badgers and Purdue, who will drop in the seeding. At one time, Purdue looked like a potential No. 1 seed, now, they’ll be a third seed at best, and more likely a No. 4, with Wisconsin.
If Penn State is the last in the pool, Colorado beat the Lions by a hair.
If the Buffaloes could have played Kansas State a few more times, the Buffaloes wouldn’t be sweating out today’s selection show. The Big 12 tournament quarterfinal victory made it a three-game sweep against one of the conference’s top programs, and Colorado’s four victories against top-25 RPI teams are twice as many as top-rated Kansas.
“We certainly hope it’s the NCAA tournament,” Colorado coach Tad Boyle said. “If it’s not we’ll be extremely disappointed.”
But Boyle will have a strong rooting interest. The program he left to join the Buffaloes, Northern Colorado, won the Big Sky and will be making its first NCAA appearance.
Virginia Tech’s ACC quarterfinal victory over Florida State should get the Hokies in the field for only the second time since 1996.
Southern California is another possibility here. The Trojans own victories over Texas, Arizona, Tennessee and others in the field. Don’t be surprised to see them as the fourth Pac-10 team selected.
Heading into Saturday, there were six at-large candidates from non-BCS programs with an RPI between 30-50. I have one – St. Mary’s – in my bracket. Among those not in are Alabama-Birmingham (No. 31), Harvard (32), Cleveland State (40), Missouri State (41) and Colorado State (49).
As for the top seeds, now that Duke and North Carolina have reached the ACC final, look for that winner to join Ohio State, Kansas and Pittsburgh on the top line.