Dan Caesar’s Week 5 NFL picks
Bears at Panthers
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Chicago 2-2, Carolina 2-2
Line: CAR by 3 O/U: 45 1/2
Synopsis: Chicago was destroyed by Green Bay last week, but now goes on road where it is 2-0. Bears like to pass, but should try to test Carolina’s No. 26 run ‘D.’ Carolina’s injury-battered ground attack could force QB Cam Newton to throw a lot.
Pick: Bears 26-24
Browns at Titans
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Cleveland 1-2, Tennessee 1-3
Line: TEN by 2 O/U: 44 1/2
Synopsis: Tennessee has dropped three in a row, but gets QB Jake Locker back from injury and draws a foe that has lost seven in a row on the road. The Browns are 10th in the NFL in rushing and might get RB Ben Tate back from a sprained knee.
Pick: Titans 23-17
Rams at Eagles
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: St. Louis 1-2, Philadelphia 3-1
Line: PHI by 7 O/U: 47 1/2
Synopsis: Philadelphia is mad after its offense was a no-show last week and is in a good spot for LeSean McCoy to finally get on track as St. Louis is 30th vs. the run. Rams have given Austin Davis the QB job and he works against the No. 28 ‘D.’
Pick: Eagles 33-27
Falcons at Giants
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Atlanta 2-2, New York 2-2
Line: NY by 4 O/U: 50 1/2
Synopsis: Atlanta comes off blowout loss at Minnesota, now has injury-ravaged offensive line that could derail its top-rated offense as it stays on road to face resurgent New York. The Falcons’ ‘D’ is 31st, not a good sign vs. New York QB Eli Manning.
Pick: Giants 30-24
Buccaneers at Saints
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Tampa Bay 1-3, New Orleans 1-3
Line: NO by 10 O/U: 48 1/2
Synopsis: New Orleans hasn’t scored more than 24 points since its opener and is primed for a breakout vs. Buccaneers – who give up nearly 30 points/game. Tampa Bay will come down to earth after its shocking win last week at Pittsburgh.
Pick: Saints 37-20
Texans at Cowboys
Kickoff: 10 a.m. (CBS)
Records: Houston 3-1, Dallas 3-1
Line: DAL by 6 O/U: 46 1/2
Synopsis: Dallas is clicking offensively, as DeMarco Murray keys the NFL’s top-rated ground game that faces the No. 19 run ‘D.’ Texans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been intercepted five times in the last two games.
Pick: Cowboys 30-23
Ravens at Colts
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Baltimore 3-1, Indianapolis 2-2
Line: IND by 3 1/2 O/U: 48 1/2
Synopsis: Indianapolis leads the league in scoring (34 points/game) and is No. 2 in yards (444 per outing) and QB Andrew Luck already has 13 TD throws as he faces the No. 24 pass ‘D.’ Baltimore has won three in a row and WR Steve Smith Sr. has been a tremendous addition.
Pick: Colts 27-20
Bills at Lions
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Buffalo 2-2, Detroit 3-1
Line: DET by 7 O/U: 44
Synopsis: Buffalo has benched struggling young QB EJ Manuel in favor of veteran Kyle Orton, who tries to wake up NFL’s 27th-ranked offense but has a steep task – on the road vs. the league’s top ‘D.’
Pick: Lions 28-20
Steelers at Jaguars
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Pittsburgh 2-2, Jacksonville 0-4
Line: PIT by 6 O/U: 47
Synopsis: Pittsburgh fuming after collapsing late last week in loss at home to lowly Tampa, now gets even lower Jacksonville (last in defense, second-worst offense) to try to rebound. Meanwhile, Jags rookie QB Blake Bortles makes just his second NFL start.
Pick: Steelers 27-17
Cardinals at Broncos
Kickoff: 1:05 p.m. (Fox 28)
Records: Arizona 3-0, Denver 2-1
Line: DEN by 7 1/2 O/U: 48 1/2
Synopsis: Denver back after a bye following its loss to Seattle and gets undefeated Arizona, which is minus QB Carson Palmer for the third game in a row. But Drew Stanton has done a nice fill-in job. Broncos are just 23rd in offense, and Cardinals have fifth-rated defense.
Pick: Broncos 27-23
Chiefs at 49ers
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m. (CBS)
Records: Kansas City 2-2, San Francisco 2-2
Line: SF by 5 1/2 O/U: 44 1/2
Synopsis: Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles had a big game last week in his return from an ankle injury. However, San Francisco is No. 4 against the run so Kansas City figures to have to pass more (with former San Francisco QB Alex Smith at the helm) than it wants. 49ers seem back on track after slow start.
Pick: 49ers 26-17
Jets at Chargers
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Records: New York 1-3, San Diego 3-1
Line: SD by 6 1/2 O/U: 43 1/2
Synopsis: Soaring San Diego shoots for its fourth straight victory and is pass-heavy on offense, with that unit ranking fifth in the NFL while the run game is No. 31. That’s in San Diego’s favor, because New York is No. 1 vs. the run – but the Chargers won’t be doing that often anyhow.
Pick: Chargers 30-20
Bengals at Patriots
Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. (NBC)
Records: Cincinnati 3-0, New England 2-2
Line: CIN by 1 O/U: 46
Synopsis: All the talk is about New England’s demise after being throttled last week, but even with offensive line woes this seems like a good spot for a big Pats outing. Cincinnati is solid offensively and defensively, but is coming off a bye and could be flat as it faces a highly motivated foe.
Pick: Patriots 27-23
Seahawks at Redskins
Monday: 5:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Records: Seattle 2-1, Washington 1-3
Line: SEA by 7 O/U: 45 1/2
Synopsis: Seattle comes off its bye and is rested for its cross-country trek to face a foe that has given up 82 points combined in its last two outings despite being No. 8 vs. the run this year. Look for Seattle to mix things up on offense and Seattle’s ‘D’ not to be afraid of ’Skins QB Kirk Cousins, who guides the No. 4 pass attack.
Pick: Seahawks 30-23