Sue Lani Madsen: Data shows that McMorris Rodgers’ district is growing more conservative

More red, still white, less blue. That’s what the numbers say, but probably not what a woman at a recent small-group gathering with Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers was hinting at. The unnamed attendee reportedly “urged the congresswoman to acknowledge that the makeup of the 5th Congressional District has changed since she entered office and to not ignore their voices.”

The statement left two questions hanging. How has Washington’s 5th Congressional District changed since McMorris Rodgers succeeded George Nethercutt in 2005? And what does listening to constituents mean as the district changes?

Redistricting reduced the geographic area of every Washington congressional district in 2012. Redistricting must have changed the district demographically and politically by increasing the influence of a re-invigorated urban area. Obviously we’re getting older and grayer, or at least I am. We hope greater numbers of young people choosing to stay after graduation are lowering the median age. We’ve been through a recession, which must have influenced incomes and poverty. Has the growing university district in Spokane changed the education profile of the 5th?

It turned out the demographic questions weren’t simple to answer. Current information was easy to find, but digging up comparable demographic data from the 109th Congress was not. The U.S. Census Bureau’s American FactFinder database proved to have the best data sets for comparison. It was thrilling in an academic Indiana Jones sort of way to be seeking original data without knowing what changes I was going to uncover.

And even though downtown Spokane may be looking more stylish, we haven’t changed.

Our median age is still right about 37 years old. The district still is 89 percent white, around 2 percent or less each for all other categories. The percentage of population at or below 200 percent of poverty level is up by 1.7 percent, but still within the margin of error. Educational attainment across the 5th shows slightly fewer with graduate or professional degrees, but again still within the margin of error. We’re not younger, richer, better educated or more diverse than we were in 2005.

But there has been significant change in the political balance between red and blue. The district has grown more conservative since McMorris Rodgers was first elected. It showed up in the last two election cycles, where primary challengers emerged from the right.

The Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voting Index, PVI for short, calculates how far left or right a district leans based on an analysis of presidential election results over time. The higher the number, the steeper the lean, and that’s where the district has changed significantly. Since 2004, the district has gone from a PVI score of R+6 to a score of R+8. Only Central Washington’s 4th Congressional District leans further right among our 10 congressional districts.

Democrats nationally have blamed the emergence of such safe Republican districts on gerrymandering. That wasn’t even an option in Eastern Washington with Canada, Idaho and Oregon forming hard boundaries on three sides. The only question for our nonpartisan redistricting panel was which counties were going to join central Washington. WA-05 lost Okanogan, Adams and part of Walla Walla counties, all redder than Spokane County. It may be one reason the 4th is redder. It might have made the 5th bluer. It didn’t.

Even if the district hasn’t changed, an elected representative still needs to listen to all voices. McMorris Rodgers’ recent small-group gatherings include constituents with a variety of political views. It’s possible the woman at the Coffee with Cathy event was making a plea for McMorris Rodgers to listen to the growing number of more conservative voices in the community. The news report isn’t specific.

But I don’t really believe that.

I’m pretty sure she thought she was on solid ground to claim the district had changed for the bluer. It’s easy to confuse the recent high-profile noise with substantive change. The only real change has been which party controls the White House, and which party is protesting on the sidewalk. That won’t change for at least four years. Maybe eight. Meanwhile, here in Eastern Washington, we’re just getting redder.