The pick: Why Air Force will beat Washington State

PHOENIX – Defense wins championships. It also wins cracker-themed bowl games. It just hasn’t won much for Washington State this season.

That the Cougars rank 79th nationally against the rush and that the Falcons rank 39th against the pass leads me to think the Mountain West will even up the score against the Pac-12 this bowl season Friday in Phoenix at the Cheez-It Bowl. Since the early season unraveling against UCLA, Washington State’s defense hasn’t recouped, often waiting for Anthony Gordon and the high-powered offense to bail it out.

In what I expect may be a race to 50 points, the Cougars will have to protect the ball against an Air Force team that tends to play keep-away, ranking eighth nationally in time of possession. If WSU gives the ball away, it’s anyone’s guess how soon the Cougars will get it back. A single turnover could be costly, and the Cougars have committed 24 this season, or two per game.

And there’s also this: WSU has yet to beat an opponent with a winning record this season. The Cougars’ six wins have come against teams with a combined record of 22-50, and their six losses to teams that went 47-27.

The pick: Air Force 52, Washington State 48.