David Ozgo: Outlet expansion in Washington benefits consumers and state

When Washington decided to expand the number of outlets for distilled spirits in July 2012, some claimed the increased access would lead to many societal harms. There were predictions of increased alcohol abuse, underage drinking, drunken driving and crime. Some believed that the mere presence of more spirits outlets would cause Washingtonians to lose all control and fall into debauchery not seen since the 18th century Gin Acts were passed in Great Britain. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention even predicted a whopping 44% increase in spirits consumption.

So, what have the actual results been for the state of Washington regarding underage drinking, drunken driving, alcohol abuse and crime?

According to the Washington Healthy Youth Survey, between 2010 (the last survey before outlet expansion) and 2018, past month drinking, binge drinking and heavy drinking among 8th-, 10th- and 12th-graders in Washington have substantially declined. While there is still much more work to be done, increasing the number of outlets selling spirits in Washington did not lead to an increase in underage drinking.

Similarly, traffic fatalities involving drunken drivers have also fallen, from 39.6% in 2011 to 32.3% in 2017, according to the Washington Traffic Safety Commission. Alcohol-impaired driving was also down. While Washington saw a declining trend in both drunken driver and alcohol-impaired driver fatalities before outlet expansion, the fact that these positive trends continued post-expansion demonstrates that the predictions regarding traffic fatalities were incorrect.

The same is true of alcohol abuse. According to the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, the percentage of persons with an alcohol disorder in Washington declined after outlet expansion. Predictions that expanding the number of outlets would lead to increased alcohol abuse have failed to materialize.

A study published in Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology claimed that Washington outlet expansion was associated with increased assaults in Seattle. But a closer examination of the data shows that this increase occurred from 2010 to 2011, which was immediately before outlet expansion. According to U.S. Justice Department data, violent crime rates in Washington declined after outlet expansion in 2011.

Finally, it should be noted that all the new spirits outlets were already licensed to carry beer and/or wine. Thus, there was no increase in the availability of beverage alcohol, merely an increase in consumer choice. Contrary to the CDC’s prediction of a 44% increase in alcohol consumption, total alcohol consumption per capita, including beer and wine, declined slightly between 2011 and 2017, according to the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.

The Distilled Spirits Council of the United States fully supports adult consumers having reasonable and responsible access to distilled spirits. Based on the evidence, increased access for distilled spirits did not lead to the societal harms some had predicted. In fact, the rates for underage drinking, drunken driving and alcohol abuse all continued on a downward trend. Although Washington spirits consumers continue to be burdened by excessive taxation, outlet expansion has benefited adult consumers and the state.

David Ozgo is chief economist of the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States.