Analysis: Predicting the future for Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers and other star NFL quarterbacks

This offseason has the potential to feature some of the most complex, dramatic quarterback maneuvering in NFL history.

Deshaun Watson wants out of Houston just a few months after signing a $39 million-per-year contract extension. Aaron Rodgers isn’t sure about his future in Green Bay after Sunday’s gut-wrenching NFC championship game loss to Tampa Bay. Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions have decided to part ways, setting up a trade.

The San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams are studying whether they want to stick with Jimmy Garoppolo and Jared Goff. The same is true for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger. The New York Jets will choose between keeping Sam Darnold and drafting a quarterback with the second pick. The Philadelphia Eagles appear to be staying with Carson Wentz, but that could change.

What makes this offseason quarterback shuffling so complex is that it will involve trades and, in some cases, finding a way to fit quarterbacks under a salary cap that could go down by more than $20 million next season.

Let’s take a look at the four highest-profile situations – Watson, Rodgers, Stafford and Roethlisberger – and make predictions on how things will play out.

Deshaun Watson

Watson hasn’t officially asked the Texans to trade him, but he has let it be known that he wants out of Houston. The Texans are a mess. Watson is so upset with ownership and upper management that he wants to be traded even if the team hires Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who is believed to be Watson’s preferred choice as head coach.

Watson is arguably one of the six best quarterbacks in the NFL. Teams interested in him will have to offer – at the least – two first-round draft picks and a high-level player. The Jets have the most to offer. They have two extra first-round picks from Seattle after the Jamal Adams trade. They could offer the second pick in the draft, another first-rounder and defensive lineman Quinnen Williams. They could throw in Darnold, too.

The Miami Dolphins have the second most to offer. They have Houston’s first- and second-round picks as well as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, last year’s fifth pick. They also possess their own first- and second-round draft choices. Carolina, San Francisco, Indianapolis and Washington will certainly call. It might be tough for the Rams and New Orleans to do much, because they don’t have the draft capital.

Prediction: I think Watson will stay with the Texans. Owner Cal McNair doesn’t want to trade him. He knows that it would turn off the fan base and that the Texans’ rebuilding effort would take even longer if Watson isn’t on the team. He’s such a good quarterback that it’s difficult to find a deal that would return equal value.

Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers, who said after Sunday’s loss that his future with the Packers is uncertain, is expected to take some time away from Green Bay to think things through. He was able to put aside his anger this season at the Packers’ decision to draft quarterback Jordan Love in the first round and not add help at wide receiver, but the NFC title game defeat opened up fresh wounds.

Even though Rodgers threw three touchdown passes, coach Matt LaFleur decided to kick a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the 8-yard line late in the game instead of allowing Rodgers the chance to tie it with a touchdown and a 2-point conversion. Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine made a terrible call just before the end of the first half to allow Tom Brady to complete a 39-yard touchdown pass to Scotty Miller past cornerback Kevin King in single coverage.

That’s back-to-back brutal NFC championship game losses for Rodgers, who also knows the Packers will move on to Love as the starter at some point.

Prediction: Rodgers will stay in Green Bay. Despite the disappointments, Rodgers clearly likes playing in the Packers’ offense under LaFleur – and for a trade to happen, it will almost certainly require Rodgers to force one. The salary cap consequences of trading Rodgers could cripple the Packers’ ability to stay atop the NFC, even if they do believe Love, who did not play as a rookie, is ready. Plus, how can a franchise trade a player who is expected to win the MVP award after a season with 48 touchdown passes?

Matthew Stafford

Stafford is a realistic possibility for the Colts, 49ers, Panthers, Steelers, Patriots, Saints and Washington. Were this a normal year, his high salary might have put his value lower than a first-round pick. But with so many QB-needy teams expected to get in on the bidding, it probably will take a first-round pick to get him.

He will soon turn 33, meaning he’s young enough to remain a starting quarterback for several years, and he would represent an upgrade for many franchises.

Prediction: Stafford goes to Washington for the 19th pick in the draft and a third-rounder. The Panthers will be aggressive, but they may not want to give up the eighth pick, which they could use to draft a quarterback. The Steelers and Saints, at No. 24 and No. 28, are likely too far back in the draft order, and both have salary cap issues that could keep them from adding Stafford’s contract.

Stafford will have a voice in the process, and one option that could be desirable is the Colts, who have a playoff-ready roster and an opening after Philip Rivers’s retirement. They are a couple of spots behind Washington in the first-round draft order at No. 21. One team that Stafford might want to avoid is New England, given the struggles the Lions had under Matt Patricia.

Ben Roethlisberger

When the Steelers started 11-0, it seemed Roethlisberger was poised to be around for two more seasons. But after a disappointing finish, including a first-round playoff loss to the Cleveland Browns, the Steelers are doing some thinking about whether to bring back Roethlisberger.

Roethlisberger’s salary cap number for next season is $41.25 million. To keep him, the Steelers are going to have to replace his salary with a signing bonus and spread it out over several years.

Prediction: Roethlisberger stays with the Steelers. The team still believes in him, and it would take a $22.25 million cap hit to move him. Plus, the Steelers have always been loyal to their top players. But they are still thinking through their options, so like all of the predictions on this list, nothing is guaranteed.