Three reasons the Mariners will make the 2022 playoffs and three reasons they won’t
PEORIA, Ariz. – Process or playoffs?
Don’t be fooled by coach-speak about the focus on process, including the daily preparation for Mariners players, as the most important goal of the 2022 season.
It’s a fine daily goal to maintain a myopic view of the marathon that is the Major League Baseball season. And, yes, proper process might lead to them to the playoffs.
But ask any player in that clubhouse who isn’t afraid to talk about expectations – theirs or others’ – or any Mariners fan who’s endured the forlorn feeling from watching other teams participate in mid-October baseball year after year, or even strap a lie detector to those in charge, and you’ll find that making the MLB postseason is, and should be, the priority for the 2022 season.
It would end a dubious drought of being the team with longest active streak of not making the postseason in North American men’s professional sports, dating to the 2001 season.
Three years ago, Jerry Dipoto, now the Mariners’ president of baseball operations, outlined a rebuild plan that was dubbed a “step-back.” Even with the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season that included no minor league season, the timeline has reached the point of expected success.
Last year’s unexpected 90-win season – which featured a chance to qualify for the postseason entering the regular-season finale and the three sellout crowds at T-Mobile Park in that series vs. the Angels – dictated a change in focus from development and building to results and winning.
With that in mind, here is a look at why the Mariners will or will not make the 2022 playoffs.
Three reasons the Mariners will make the playoffs Pitching prevails
The Mariners added four pitchers – the reigning American League Cy Young winner, a proven closer with 115 career saves, a reliever whose fastball regularly hits 100 mph and a setup man with three World Series rings and 782 MLB appearances – to a staff that returned almost every key contributor from last season.
Robbie Ray moves to the top of the rotation after taking home the award as the American League’s best pitcher. The veteran lefty brings a level of intensity that fits with the makeup of the rotation and the ability to generate swings and misses, which was lacking in 2021. Ray joins returnees Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen and Logan Gilbert. The remaining spot could go to a talented pitching prospect such as Matt Brash or George Kirby.
The bullpen is bolstered by veteran closer Ken Giles and hard-throwing setup man Andres Munoz coming off Tommy John surgery. Giles has served as the closer for the Astros, Phillies and Blue Jays, and Munoz’s triple-digit fastball leaves hitters overwhelmed. Veteran right-hander Sergio Romo, who was a key reliever on the past three Giants championship teams, brings more than middle-relief help to the bullpen.
An improved offense?
It’s difficult to imagine the Mariners’ offense wouldn’t be improved from 2021, because it couldn’t get much worse. Seattle ranked last in MLB in batting average (.226), 28th in on-base percentage (.303), 26th in slugging percentage (.385) and 23rd in runs per game (4.3).
Two positions largely responsible for the awful numbers – left field and second base – have been significantly upgraded.
A November trade brought All-Star second baseman Adam Frazier to the organization and a trade at the start of spring training added All-Star Jesse Winker.
The Mariners got 0.5 wins above replacement (WAR) from the second base position, per FanGraphs.
Frazier, who turned 30 on Dec. 14, posted .305/.368/.411 slash line with 36 doubles, five triples, five homers, 43 RBIs, 10 stolen bases, 48 walks, 69 strikeouts and a 4.0 FanGraphs WAR in 155 games between the Pirates and Padres.
With a short swing and discerning eye at the plate, Frazier brings a level of consistency in terms of bat-to-ball skills that has been lacking at the position.
The Mariners’ left-field position produced a .191/.285/.333 slash line with 22 doubles, 17 homers, 59 RBIs, 21 stolen bases, 68 walks and 162 strikeouts in 606 plate appearances, generating 0.2 WAR, which was third-lowest in baseball.
Winker produced a .305/.394/.556 slash line with 32 doubles, 24 homers, 77 RBIs, 53 walks and 75 strikeouts and a 3.2 WAR in 110 games with the Reds.
If Eugenio Suarez, who came over in the trade with Winker, can replicate his homer production from past seasons, he can be an adequate replacement for Kyle Seager at third base. The big key could be the production provided by Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez.
Expanded playoffs
With the new CBA, the postseason field has been expanded to 12 teams, which means six teams in each league qualify for the playoffs.
An extra spot can’t be a bad thing for the Mariners, who would’ve qualified for the postseason in 2016, 2014, 2003 and 2002 in the current 12-team format.
The Astros are still the favorite in a changing AL West, but the loss of Carlos Correa will hurt their lineup. The A’s are tearing down their team, having already dealt Matt Chapman, Matt Olson and Chris Bassitt. Texas has added two major hitters in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, but its pitching staff is suspect. The Angels have Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon and will still probably find a way to underachieve.
Three reasons the Mariners won’t make the playoffs Regression and injuries
The season-crushing maladies of any team with postseason hopes. The Mariners have already lost ultra-value reliever Casey Sadler to season-ending shoulder surgery. And it’s impossible to believe they won’t lose a starting pitcher or two for at least a few weeks during the season. What would be more costly is losing an everyday player to injury. While the offense should be improved, it can’t withstand a long-term injury to a key player such as Mitch Haniger or Ty France, or even multiple short-term injuries.
The regression aspect is pointed directly at the pitching staff, where Flexen produced a career year that many scouts believe he won’t come close to repeating. The bullpen led by Paul Sewald and Drew Steckenrider was one of the best in baseball. It’s a main reason Seattle was 33-19 in games decided by one run. That isn’t likely sustainable for a second consecutive season.
Given the unpredictable nature of relievers, it’s possible that at least two of the projected bullpen arms struggle in 2022.
The beasts in the AL East
It’s important to remember that last season’s 90-72 team wouldn’t have qualified for the expanded playoffs. The Blue Jays finished with a 91-71 record and would’ve taken the final spot. Based on roster improvements and glancing at statistical projections, the Mariners will almost certainly have to vie with the Astros, White Sox, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays again.
And if at least 90 wins is needed to have a chance in 2022, it’s fair to wonder if the Mariners’ additions cannot only offset the expected regression, but also provide at least two more wins.
The four American League East teams might cannibalize each others’ records in division play, but they all managed to win 91 or more games in 2021, and they’ve all improved in various ways.
There doesn’t seem to be a team in the AL Central after Chicago that could win 90-plus games. Projection systems believe the Angels are better than the Mariners as well. Could Seattle’s best path to the postseason be by winning the AL West title? To do that, it would have to beat the Astros, who have an 86-27 record against Seattle over the past five seasons, including a 36-12 record the past three years.
Because they haven’t in 21 years …
This sort of failure builds into something more than a streak. Call it a mental block, label it a curse, think it of as logical product of an organization afraid to truly do what it takes to win, that it’s reached this stage of failure won’t simply end because they want it to.