Who will and who should take home Oscar gold on Sunday
One of my favorite Academy Awards traditions is to not only guess who’s going to win, but also pick who I’d give the award to in the categories. This is mostly because the Academy and I often disagree about what is the best.
So, I’d like to do just that with some of the biggest awards of this year’s nominees.
Best original screenplay
“Belfast”
“Don’t Look Up”
“King Richard”
“Licorice Pizza”
“The Worst Person in the World”
Who I want to win: “Licorice Pizza”
Who will win: “Licorice Pizza”
Of these five nominees, “Licorice Pizza” had the best dialogue and the most innovative style, so it would get my vote in this category. In reality, the award could go to P.T. Anderson for “Licorice Pizza” or Kenneth Branagh for “Belfast” since both are veterans who have been snubbed by the Academy multiple times.
Best adapted screenplay
“CODA”
“Drive My Car”
“Dune”
“The Lost Daughter”
“The Power of the Dog”
Who I want to win: “Dune”
Who will win: “The Power of the Dog”
The fact that they were able to turn “Dune” into a comprehensible movie from a novel that was often said to be “unadaptable” makes it deserving of winning this award. But I expect this to be a big night for Jane Campion and her stunning achievements for “The Power of the Dog,” so they’ll probably award it to her.
Best director
Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”
Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, “Drive My Car”
Steven Spielberg, “West Side Story”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”
Who I want to win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Who will win: Jane Campion
Speaking of a big night for Campion, this is the one award I feel the most confident about predicting. As much as I loved Anderson and Hamaguchi’s work in their respective movies, Campion blew them all out of the water and impressed everyone with her smart, focused and sharp movie.
Best supporting actress
Jessie Buckley, “The Lost Daughter”
Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”
Judi Dench, “Belfast”
Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”
Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard”
Who I want to win: Ariana DeBose
Who will win: Ariana DeBose
One of the few times that the Academy and I will agree on something – DeBose nailed the role of Anita and even added a greater dimension to the character. Part of that could be due to Steven Spielberg, but DeBose’s performance should not be understated. It was the best part of “West Side Story.”
Best supporting actor
Claran Hinds, “Belfast”
Troy Kotsur, “CODA”
Jesse Plemons, “The Power of the Dog”
J.K. Simmons, “Being the Ricardos”
Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog”
Who I want to win: Kodi Smit-McPhee
Who will win: Troy Kotsur
I’m torn on this particular award. There was never a doubt in my mind that Smit-McPhee gave the most unforgettable performance of these five. Oftentimes, I think that should be the reason why someone wins this award. But Kotsur is a one-of-a-kind actor and should be recognized for his memorable work.
Best actress
Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter”
Penelope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers”
Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”
Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”
Who I want to win: Penelope Cruz
Who will win: Jessica Chastain
This one is a process of elimination. Kidman and Stewart didn’t give highly memorable performances, and Colman won best actress a few years ago. Cruz gave a more-layered performance, but Chastain went through a physical transformation for her role. That will give her the win.
Best actor
Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”
Andrew Garfield, “Tick, Tick…Boom!”
Will Smith, “King Richard”
Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
Who I want to win: Benedict Cumberbatch
Who will win: Will Smith
Cumberbatch gave the best performance of the year, and it’s his role that makes “The Power of the Dog” as good as it is. But Smith has been cleaning up the bigger awards recently, so that trend will probably continue at the Academy Awards.
Best picture
“Belfast”
“CODA”
“Don’t Look Up”
“Drive My Car”
“Dune”
“King Richard”
“Licorice Pizza”
“Nightmare Alley”
“The Power of the Dog”
“West Side Story”
Who I want to win: “Licorice Pizza”
Who will win: “The Power of the Dog”
Honestly, I’d be fine with most of these films winning best picture. This was a breath of fresh air year after how awful 2020 was for films. “Licorice Pizza” impressed me the most and had one of the most memorable romances in the last decade.
But there was never any doubt in my mind that “The Power of the Dog” wasn’t going to win best picture. From the moment I saw it, this film screamed of winning the top prize at the Oscars in all the best ways – and it deserves the award, too.