What to know about Ukraine’s move into Kherson city

Ukraine said Friday that its troops were retaking the southern city of Kherson. The move came shortly after Russia said it had withdrawn from the west bank of the Dnieper River in the Kherson region.

Kherson had been the only regional capital captured by Russia, which illegally annexed the area in September. Ukrainian forces have been fighting a monthslong counteroffensive in the region, but had been skeptical of Russia’s plans to withdraw.

A Ukrainian recapture of the city would be a major military setback for Moscow, but it is unclear how it will affect Russia’s broader war aims.

What is happening in Kherson?

On Friday, the intelligence directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that “Kherson is returning under the control of Ukraine” and that “units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are entering the city.” Footage has shown Ukrainian soldiers greeted by enthusiastic civilians in the city.

The announcement came only hours after Russia’s Defense Ministry said Russian forces had redeployed to the left or east bank of the Dnieper River by the city. “Not a single piece of military equipment and weaponry was left … and there were no losses of personnel, weapons, equipment,” a statement said.

The move wasn’t entirely unexpected.

In a televised appearance Wednesday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu – dressed in fatigues and seated beside Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the head of Russia’s armed forces in Ukraine – ordered Russian troops to withdraw to the east bank. The move would “save the lives of our military and combat capability,” Surovikin said.

The announcement followed weeks of costly Ukrainian advances in the south. It also came on the heels of Russia’s swift and bruising loss of territory in the northeastern Kharkiv region in September.

But the speed of the withdrawal from the city surprised some Western officials.

On Tuesday, U.S. Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had predicted that a Russian pullout from the city would take “days and maybe even weeks.”

Why is the city of Kherson important for Russia?

Kherson sits on the west bank of the Dnieper River. The region is north of the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. In February, Russian troops poured in from Crimea and captured the city just days after the invasion began.

The Kherson region has since served as a key bridge between the peninsula and mainland Ukraine. This connection has allowed for the movement of troops and military equipment. Kherson has a Soviet-era canal that provides Crimea with water; in the spring, Russia turned it back on after Kyiv blocked it in 2014 when Russian-backed separatists seized territory in eastern Ukraine.

What could happen next?

It remains unclear what parts of the Kherson region remain in Russian control and whether Moscow plans to move back its troops farther. Western officials, however, have been cautiously optimistic about the retreat in recent days.

“It is encouraging to see how the brave Ukrainian forces are able to liberate more Ukrainian territory … But of course, the support they receive from the United Kingdom, from NATO allies and partners is also essential,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters Wednesday after a meeting in London with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

It does not, however, mean the war is over.

“This war is likely to continue for the foreseeable future,” said Seth Jones, head of the international security program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. “I don’t see any daylight between what the Russians’ long-term objectives are in Ukraine, and Ukraine’s desire to keep all of the territories they’ve lost (since) 2014.

“The Russians take a very long-term approach to this.”