Moderna to push backup experimental flu shot after setback

Moderna Inc.’s first experimental flu shot didn’t accumulate enough data to determine efficacy in a final-stage study, and the company said it will advance another candidate.

Moderna tested its messenger RNA flu shot against a traditional vaccine in a trial of about 23,000 people age 50 and older in the Northern Hemisphere. An independent panel of scientific advisers recommended that the research continue to gather more data. Moderna plans to start a final-stage study of an updated version of the vaccine this month, according to a statement Tuesday. The shares fell as much as 4.9% at the New York market open.

Introducing a flu shot is crucial to Moderna’s future. COVID vaccine sales are expected to drop precipitously with so many people already immunized and lackluster demand for boosters. Breaking into the roughly $7 billion flu shot market could help revenue. Plus, the company sees combination shots that protect people from COVID, flu and potentially RSV as a way to buoy sales.

But before it can start mixing them together, Moderna needs to prove each piece works on its own, and the flu setback could delay its plans. Moderna said Tuesday it intends to make combination vaccines available by 2025.

By 2027, Moderna expects sales of respiratory products ranging from $8 billion to $15 billion with profit between $4 billion and $9 billion. The company shared plans for immunizations against other ailments including respiratory syncytial virus and cytomegalovirus ahead of an investor event focused on its vaccine business. The company plans to seek U.S. approval for its RSV shot this quarter. Its final-stage study of a CMV vaccine is about halfway enrolled.

Moderna said it will also start developing immunizations for tick-borne Lyme disease and norovirus, a frequent cause of vomiting and diarrhea.