Cold December: Examining Gonzaga’s four-game 3-point-shooting slump

The 3-point-shooting issues Gonzaga stumbled on in December were costly in high-profile losses to Washington and UConn and not quite as discernible in runaway wins against SWAC opponents Mississippi Valley State and Jackson State.

Either way, the Bulldogs probably can’t afford to let them linger as they return from holiday break Friday to face San Diego State in what projects to be one of their final chances to secure a top-30 win before the NCAA Tournament field is selected.

Gonzaga failed to shoot better than 27% from the 3-point line in each of its past four games, making 27.8% (5 for 18) in a 78-73 loss to Washington; 20.8% (5 for 24) in a 78-40 win over Mississippi Valley State; 16.7% (2 for 12) in a 76-63 loss to UConn; and 27.8% (5 for 18) in a 100-76 win over Jackson State.

Over the course of a full college basketball season, that amounts to a small sample size and the four-game slump could be a meaningless data point by Saturday morning if the Bulldogs clean up their perimeter-shooting issues against last season’s national runner-up, the Aztecs.

For now, though, it’s still a troubling trend.

Until the recent stretch, a Mark Few-coached Gonzaga team had never shot less than 30% from the 3-point line in four consecutive games. There have been six occasions during the Few era – which has spanned 25 seasons and 836 games – when Gonzaga has failed to make 30% in three consecutive games, but that hasn’t happened since 2015-16. Game-by-game statistics prior to Few’s first season in 1999-2000 aren’t available on the school’s athletic website.

Gonzaga’s failed to make 20% on two occasions, finishing just 6 of 32 (18%) against Purdue at the Maui Invitational. The Bulldogs haven’t had two sub-20% 3-point-shooting performances in the same season since 2018-19.

Players and coaches are aware of the issue and actively searching for solutions, but there isn’t a reason to think this will be a long-term situation.

Gonzaga’s team 3-point-shooting percentage has plummeted to 32%, but the Bulldogs can take solace in knowing none of Few’s teams has concluded a season shooting less than 35% from the 3-point line.

Gonzaga’s 2023-24 roster is largely comprised of successful 3-point shooters who’ve made between 35 to 45% in college/high school. The Bulldogs have shown they’re capable of hitting 3s at an efficient clip, making 22 of 46 over a two-game stretch against USC and Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

“I wouldn’t say it’s a huge area of concern because, really, everyone that plays this year is capable of shooting 3s,” Gonzaga assistant coach Brian Michaelson said via phone earlier this week. “And the majority of guys that have played have proven they’ve made 3s throughout their career.”

Point guard Ryan Nembhard wasn’t a 3-point specialist at Creighton, but he still made 33% over two seasons with the Bluejays, and connected on 35% in 2022-23, before transferring to Gonzaga this offseason. Nembhard hasn’t seen a 3-pointer fall since the first half of a Dec. 5 game against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. He has missed 12 of his past 13 attempts, including eight straight.

Through 12 games, the junior is shooting at a 17% clip, but Nembhard isn’t the only backcourt starter trying to shoot himself out of slump. Nolan Hickman, who made 35% last season, is 3 for 13 after a three-game stretch in which the junior guard made 8 of 16. Freshman Dusty Stromer made 1 of 11 against Washington, MVSU and UConn before going 2 of 3 in GU’s last game against Jackson State.

Stromer was an efficient 3-point shooter during his senior season at Sherman Oaks (California) Notre Dame, making 38%.

Redshirt freshman forward Braden Huff made better than 40% each of his past two prep seasons at Illinois’ Glenbard West. Huff’s hot hand has cooled since the start of the season. The 6-foot-10 forward has gone eight halves without connecting from 3, missing his last six attempts.

“Our team does such a good job, all of our players work so hard getting it in on their own, getting in the gym, getting extra shots,” junior forward Ben Gregg said. “Just got to stay consistent with that, can’t give up or give in like, ‘Oh, I can’t make anything, I’m going to stop shooting.’ Because if you do that, it’s going to mess your whole game up. So just staying consistent with the work and just having confidence the next shot’s going to go in.”

Michaelson stressed many of the same points.

“I think continuing to put time in in the gym,” he said. “In terms of not just the time, but the quality of reps now where we’re quite a ways into the season where we have a pretty good feel of what type of shots each guy’s getting.”

Nembhard, as GU’s primary ball-handler, gets a number of his 3s off the dribble and from a variety of spots on the floor.

Since moving into an off-ball role, Hickman, as the starting shooting guard, is getting more catch-and-shoot opportunities than he did last season.

Stromer frequently spots up from the corner, taking advantage of kick-outs when defenders collapse into the paint.

“Each guy’s shots are probably slightly different,” Michaelson said. “Not everybody is shooting the exact same 3s, so the ability to work on those 3s they’re getting and keep their confidence up and having them step up and shoot that with confidence, because, again, they’re all guys that have had success from 3 in their careers, and I think it’s something that will be on the uptick here as we come out of break.”

Gonzaga’s starting guards rank Nos. 1, 2 and 3 in 3-point attempts, but forwards occupy the top four spots when it comes to 3-point percentage: Anton Watson (9 for 21, 42%), Gregg (10 for 24, 41%), Huff (10 for 25, 40%) and Graham Ike (4 for 11, 36%).

Watson has made significant progress from the 3-point line. The fifth-year senior wasn’t someone opponents had to account for on the perimeter each of his first three seasons, shooting 11% during an injury-impacted freshman season, 15% as a sophomore and 22% as a junior, but Watson made 16 3s while shooting 33% last year and is on pace to outdo those numbers during his final season of eligibility.

“I think it’s a huge tribute to him and the development path he took,” Michaelson said. “I think people forget a little bit the injury he had that freshman year. He tried to tough through it, but it was pretty significant.”

An eight-day layoff between games, including a five-day stretch when the Zags didn’t practice, may be the best remedy for the team’s 3-point-shooting dilemma. Before the holiday break, Nembhard and Hickman were averaging 34.1 and 33.8 minutes per game, respectively, while Stromer and Watson were even at 29.1.

“Every year going back to when I was a player and coaching, the break is always really important both physically and mentally for people to be able to get home and be home for the holidays and see their families,” Michaelson said. “So I have no doubt that it’s always a positive, but I think this year we have a handful of guys that are playing a ton of minutes, so I think getting their bodies some extra rest is huge.”