Analysis: What a new contract with Geno Smith could look like for Seahawks

SEATTLE – Geno Smith may not have written back to those he said wrote him off before the 2022 season.

But what he would like to write soon is his name on a big, new, multimillion-dollar contract from the Seahawks.

Or, if for some reason that doesn’t work out, with some other team.

Smith and the Seahawks have made it clear they hope he will, in the next month or so, agree to a new deal to stay with the team as its starting quarterback.

With Smith’s future still in some question, and with deadlines approaching, it’s a good time to review some of the key issues involved in the two sides getting a deal done.

Q: What is the franchise tag and could it be a factor?

A: The franchise tag is a device that allows teams to “tag” one player a year and essentially prevent him from becoming a free agent by requiring any team that might try to sign him to give compensation if it does.

Smith can become an unrestricted free agent on March 15 – and can begin negotiating with other teams on March 13 – if not under contact with the Seahawks.

Seattle can avoid that by “slapping a tag” on Smith – the way it is often phrased since players don’t normally like the tag since it restricts their ability to hit the open market – during a 15-day window in which teams can apply the tag. That period this year runs from Tuesday until March 7.

The tags have predetermined salaries based on a formula calculating the average of the top-five salaries at the player’s position over the previous five years and then adjusted proportionally to the salary cap for the upcoming year.

To keep this as simple as possible, the tag the Seahawks would most likely use on Smith, if they did, is a nonexclusive tag. That would give Smith a salary of $32.4 million for the 2023 season but allow him to still negotiate with other teams. If he came to a deal with another team, Seattle could match the offer or get two first-round picks in return. The compensation involved has had the result of tagged players rarely getting offers from other teams.

But teams can continue to negotiate with tagged players until July 15 on longer-term contracts.

There’s little chance Smith would play in 2023 on the tagged number, all of which Seattle would have to take against the salary cap next season.

That basically means that if the Seahawks tag Smith, it would likely be as they did with Frank Clark in 2019 – using the tag as a delay tactic to work out a longer-term deal later before trading him to Kansas City when it became clear that such a deal wouldn’t get done.

The Seahawks have used the franchise tag twice in the Pete Carroll-John Schneider era.

Q: So is the tag number meaningful?

A: Even if it’s unlikely Smith would play on the tag, the tag number would serve as a starting point of negotiations between Smith’s agents and the Seahawks.

The likely goal for each side is to get Smith signed at a deal for at least two or three years but at a number that doesn’t put a huge dent on Seattle’s cap – at least not in 2023, anyway.

Smith, according to OvertheCap.com, has made $17.489 million in his 10-year NFL career, including $10.295 million during his four seasons with the Seahawks (buoyed by hitting $3.5 million in incentives in 2022).

He is certainly looking for a much bigger payday while the Seahawks hope to get Smith signed at as cap-friendly of a salary as possible.

The Seahawks have just over $31 million cap space, according to OvertheCap.com. But Seattle will need more than $10 million to sign its 10 draft picks – those picks at Nos. 5 and 20 come with a higher price tag than the lower picks Seattle has often had. It will need money to take care of the rest of its free agents (such as safety Ryan Neal and maybe nose tackle Poona Ford) and anything else the team wants to get done.

That it will cost a lot more to re-sign Smith now than expected when the year began is one reason there has been speculation the Seahawks could decide to cut a few high-priced veterans.

For instance, the Seahawks could create $8.9 million in cap space by releasing defensive end Shelby Harris, $6.5 million by releasing guard Gabe Jackson and $4.4 million by releasing defensive lineman Quinton Jefferson.

While those three have been valued players, the Seahawks could use the cap space and find lower-cost replacements, such as re-signing Phil Haynes to replace Jackson, or drafting players to fill those spots.

Q: So what might a deal for Smith ultimately look like?

A: This is the big question.

To get an answer, we reached out to Jason Fitzgerald, the founder of OvertheCap.com.

Fitzgerald wrote: “My assumption would be that a fair contract would be in the ballpark of two years for $55-60 million with around $35 million guaranteed. This would guarantee him more than the franchise tag while giving Seattle more wiggle room with his salary next season if he doesn’t have a good year again and not get locked in on some crazy-high number. I’d imagine they would also include an incentive or escalator package that would increase his potential earnings to around where two tags would be (approximately $71.5 million over two years) if he did play at a high level.

“If they did a deal like that, my guess is they would include one void year for cap purposes and it would come out to cap numbers of 2023, $13 million; 2024, $31 million; 2025, $11 million (void). And with the cash salaries being 2023, $35 million; 2024, $20 million; 2025, $0. There would be further upward mobility in that 2024 salary and incentives in 2023 based on the 2023 performance.”

A void year is a year tacked on to the end of the contract solely for cap purposes, in which the player is not actually under contract with the team. It essentially allows teams to spread out the bonuses given to players over more years, lowering the cap hit for each year.

While some teams have made a habit of using void years, Seattle largely avoided using them until 2021 when the cap went down because overall league revenue decreased with no fans in the stands in 2020 due to COVID-19.

Q: Will a deal get done?

A: OK, so maybe THIS is really the key question.

The guess here is yes. The Seahawks love what Smith did this year. And Smith finally found a home in the league with the Seahawks after seven seasons as a backup. It’s hard to imagine that relationship won’t continue.

As noted, the Seahawks may not want too much of a long-term commitment and will want to assure they can structure the deal in a way to allow them to address their other issues.

And a two- or three-year deal – especially if there is a void year at the end – doesn’t mean the Seahawks can’t draft a QB in the first round. Seattle drafted Russell Wilson in the third round in 2012 after signing Matt Flynn to a three-year, $20.5 million deal.

The Seahawks can take care of the present while also looking to the future. And that may well be the way they go.