Analysis: What Mariners roster would look like if season started tomorrow

SEATTLE – While the Mariners haven’t officially announced the report date for pitchers and catchers – the unofficial start to any baseball season – the common thinking around Major League Baseball is that it will come on Valentine’s Day.

With the World Baseball Classic taking place this spring, there might have been a push to have players, specifically those participating in the WBC, arrive a little earlier, perhaps on a “volun-told” strategy, to get a few a days at their complex. In the Phoenix area, however, Super Bowl LVII, which is being played at StateFarm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, is making that somewhat impossible, with hotels and temporary residences either booked or charging astronomical prices in the days surrounding the big game.

So on Thursday, it will be 41 days until the expected Feb. 14 report date, 51 days until the Mariners’ Cactus League opener vs. the Padres at the Peoria Sports Complex and 85 days until the they open the 2023 season at T-Mobile Park on Thursday, March 30, vs. the Cleveland Guardians.

Obviously, a lot can and will change for the Mariners – both good and bad – until those noted dates.

Jerry Dipoto, the Mariners president of baseball operations, has made it quite clear that he’s still trying add pieces to the roster and organization – specifically one right-handed hitting position player – to bolster the team’s offensive production and also adding experienced upper-level depth to offset any potential injuries or struggling performers.

“I don’t think we have to, but I think we’d like to,” Dipoto said at the MLB winter meetings. “We’re going to continue to try to, but I do think that we are we’re about as balanced as any team that I think I’ve ever had. We have young in-their-prime players at every position on the field, including the upside of Jarred Kelenic in left field. Our challenge now becomes how to take that how to add another player, who can take some of that pressure off of JK, or Taylor Trammell and give us the ability to rotate at designated hitter. That’s the piece, and we do need that. That player doesn’t play for us right now. If we start the season today, I feel confident that over 162-game season, somewhere along the way we’re going to find that player, whether he’s currently in-house, I can’t say.”

The Mariners should be considered an unfinished product by all involved.

It makes the idea of projecting the Mariners’ 26-man roster seem sort of silly. Common sense tells you that there will be at least five things that happen over those time spans that will greatly affect the expected active roster.

And yet, by doing this way-too-early exercise, it does highlight what is missing or lacking with the current roster by narrowing down the whole of the organization and into an actual team.

Right now, if you had to pencil out a lineup, who would you use at designated hitter? Even with a rotational plan to keep your regulars healthy, the lineup would be lacking in at least one other spot if not multiple spots. How about if there is a leverage situation late in a game that could feature dangerous lefty hitters – like maybe Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker – in two of the three spots with runners on base? Which pitcher do they turn to? Insert your Robbie Ray joke.

Starting rotation (5)

• Luis Castillo, RHP

• Robbie Ray, LHP

• Logan Gilbert, RHP

• George Kirby, RHP

• Marco Gonzales, LHP

Notes: Those five projected starters combined to make 132 of the team’s 162 starts. None of those five pitchers missed a scheduled start with the Mariners due to injury. In fact, if you include Chris Flexen’s 22 starts and the five starts before Matt Brash pitched his way out of the rotation, those seven pitchers combined for 159 starts with none of them spending a single moment on the injured list. Kirby was optioned to Tacoma over the All-Star break to give him a break from his heavy usage and overall workload.

Common sense and baseball logic says that likely won’t happen again. Seattle considered moving Gonzales and Flexen at the trade deadline and could so again. Though keeping Flexen is a major insurance policy. Brash will come to spring training stretched out as a starter as additional insurance but is expected to shift to the bullpen.

Bullpen (8)

• Paul Sewald, RHP

• Andres Munoz, RHP

• Matt Brash, RHP

• Diego Castillo, RHP

• Penn Murfee, RHP

• Chris Flexen, RHP

• Trevor Gott, RHP

• Matt Festa, RHP

Notes: Gott, who is the Mariners only free agent signing to an MLB contract this offseason, essentially replaces Erik Swanson, who was sent to Toronto as part of the trade that netted Teoscar Hernandez. This projected bullpen doesn’t include a left-handed pitcher, which isn’t surprising after the Mariners went without a lefty reliever for much of last season until acquiring Matthew Boyd at the deadline.

Lefty Brennan Bernardino, who signed with the Mariners out of the Mexican League last season, and made a handful of appearances is still on the 40-man along with lefty Gabe Speier, who was claimed off waivers from the Royals.

Outfielders (5)

• Julio Rodriguez, CF

• Teoscar Hernandez, RF

• Jarred Kelenic, OF

• Sam Haggerty, OF

• Taylor Trammell, OF

Notes: Rodriguez is locked in center field until he decides not to be. Hernandez replaces Mitch Haniger in right field. But with this roster, the Mariners would likely platoon left field with Jarred Kelenic facing right-handed starting pitchers and switch-hitter Sam Haggerty, who is a better hitter from the right side, starting vs. lefty pitchers. Realistically any consistent production and some semblance of viable defense will be better than what they got from Jesse Winker last season. But the Mariners would much rather use Haggerty off the bench, feeling he could be more effective with his baserunning skills late in games. Keeping Trammell as the extra outfielder is a little redundant considering he has similar shortcomings to Kelenic, but there are few options on the current 40-man or Class AAA Tacoma roster to use instead.

Infielders (6)

• Ty France, 1B

• Kolton Wong, 2B

• J.P. Crawford, SS

• Eugenio Suarez, 3B

• Dylan Moore, IF

• Jacob Nottingham, 1B/C

Notes: Wong replaces Adam Frazier as the primary second baseman and could be an upgrade both on offense and defense if he returns to his typical form. The rest of the starting infield returns for another season. The Mariners hope to use Moore at shortstop more than past season, particularly vs. tough lefty starters. They believe it will keep Crawford a little healthier and more productive over the course of the season. Nottingham, who signed a minor league deal, is tossed into this projection due to his right-handed bat and his ability to catch and play first base. Evan White’s status is an unknown. The Mariners expect/hope he will be healthy in spring training. But he’s played 58 total games – 30 MLB games in 2021 and 28 minor league games in 2022 – over the last two seasons due to hip and hernia surgery. Even if he’s fully healthy, he has yet to establish himself as viable MLB hitter.

Catchers (2)

• Cal Raleigh

• Tom Murphy

Notes: Raleigh is the starting catcher and will see most of the playing time with Murphy serving as the backup. Seattle wants to try and keep Raleigh as healthy as possible. He needed offseason thumb surgery after playing the last six weeks of the season with a torn ligament in his thumb. Pitchers trust Murphy when he’s behind the plate, and he’s solid vs. lefty pitching. Having a third “catcher” on the roster like Nottingham or Cooper Hummel, would allow for Seattle to rest Raleigh more with DH days and keep his bat in the lineup.