Commentary: Mariners should be big players if Shohei Ohtani ends up on trade market soon

SEATTLE – The T-Mobile Park crowd, immune to tampering rules, made a unique and powerful recruiting pitch to Shohei Ohtani in Tuesday’s All-Star Game. The “Come To Seattle” chant caught the ears of the man himself; whether it will have any influence remains to be seen.

But while all the focus is on Ohtani’s pending free agency at the end of the season, what if there was a chance for Ohtani to Come To Seattle even earlier?

The Aug. 1 trade deadline looms in just over two weeks. Ohtani’s Angels reached the All-Star break in full collapse: They lost nine of their final 10 games to fall under .500 for the first time all season. With Mike Trout undergoing wrist surgery last week for a hamate fracture that will put him out of action for four to six weeks, Anthony Rendon sidelined since July 4, and a number of other players hurt, the playoff chances of the Angels are slip-sliding away.

While Angels owner Arte Moreno is said to be loathe to trade Ohtani, for obvious reasons, there is an undeniable scenario that would leave him little choice. If the Angels’ free fall continues coming out of the break, and they drop hopelessly out of contention, Moreno would have to think long and hard about trading the man who is gaining increasing recognition as the greatest player in the history of the game.

Yes, that would be immensely distasteful for the Angels, who will have gotten zero playoff appearances from the combination of Ohtani and Trout. But with Fox’s Ken Rosenthal saying recently that the Angels have little to no chance of re-signing Ohtani in free agency, how could they not put him on the trade block if they continue to falter? It’s possible the Angels could leverage an Ohtani deal now that would give them the foundation in talent for the sort of turnaround that the Marlins, Reds, Orioles and Diamondbacks are currently enjoying. The alternative is to watch Ohtani walk away after the season for nothing more than a draft choice while they wallow down the stretch as an under .500 also-ran.

If you read that Moreno absolutely won’t trade Ohtani, take it with a grain of salt and skepticism. Yes, it might be true, but here’s what National GM Mike Rizzo said in June last year, speaking on 106.7 The Fan radio: “We are not trading Juan Soto. … We have every intention of building this team around Juan Soto, and we’ve spoken to his agent many, many times. We recently sat with him when he was in Washington, D.C., and made it clear to him that we’re not interested in trading him.”

Spoiler alert: On Aug. 2, Rizzo and the Nationals traded Soto to the Padres for a massive prospects package.

There is already endless speculation about whether the Mariners would be serious contenders next year for Ohtani on the open market. But for now, let’s ponder what they would do if the Angels do indeed, with great reluctance and trepidation, make Ohtani available now (or soon). Unlike Soto, who had two more years of club control, Ohtani would be a pure rental player, which usually drives down the asking price. But as is so often the case with Ohtani, he would be a unique case, with circumstances that would ramp up the cost considerably.

For one thing, you’d be getting both an ace pitcher and an impact bat. It’s what makes Ohtani the phenomenon that he is, and that’s such a huge selling point for the stretch drive that the Angels would rightfully exploit his dual value for everything they can get.

For another, whichever team landed Ohtani in August could well have a huge two-month head start on convincing him this is the place to make his permanent home. In other words, get him when he has no say in the matter, and start selling him for when he does. It’s a strategy that the Cardinals, in particular, used successfully to sway both Mark McGwire and Matt Holliday to sign long-term deals as free agents after being acquired as trade-deadline rentals.

From the Mariners’ standpoint, here’s one scenario they have to be concerned about: They give up a wealth of talent to get Ohtani – and they’d probably have to overpay to get the Angels to trade him within their division – and still fall short of the playoffs. Ohtani signs with another team after the season, and the M’s end up with nothing to show for their bold move but misery and a talent void.

Ah, but here’s another scenario: They put together a package the Angels can’t say no to and acquire Ohtani; he does Ohtani things and sparks the Mariners into the playoffs … and then let your imagination run wild.

Just think about a playoff rotation of Ohtani, Luis Castillo and George Kirby (if you haven’t had to trade the latter to get Ohtani in the first place). You could ride that a long way – and then Ohtani is so caught up in the fun and frenzy, and finds Seattle such an appealing place to live and play, that he signs as a free agent with the Mariners.

Now, I know there are people who get angry every time someone mentions the Mariners as a potential landing spot for Ohtani’s free agency, because they refuse to believe Mariners’ ownership would make the financial commitment – upward of $500 million over, say, 10 years in virtually every estimation, possibly as high as $600 million. But I believe the Mariners understand the benefits – financial and otherwise – to having Ohtani, have been preparing for it, and will be a major player in the bidding war (which, please note, is different from saying they will sign him).

What no one knows is what Ohtani wants, but we do at least know he has a favorable impression of Seattle, both from spending offseasons here and from the positive reception he got on Tuesday. The Mariners were perceived to be a close runner-up in 2018 when they made a massive effort to land Ohtani coming out of Japan.

If – and granted, it’s still a big if – the Angels decide to trade Ohtani, I’d be shocked if the Mariners didn’t make another massive effort to bring him here. Of course, if they collapse out of the break, that’s another story, but riding the momentum of seven wins in nine games that put them well within range of a playoff berth to end the first half, another surge like they had last year before the trade deadline would set them up perfectly.

This is a team with a crying need for a big bat, and they probably will require another starter with Bryan Woo nearing his innings limit and Marco Gonzales’s health a question mark. Voilà: Ohtani is a big bat and starting pitcher – an elite one, at that – in one fell swoop.

The asking price would no doubt be extremely high – like probably Kirby or Logan Gilbert high, with Bryce Miller and Woo and Harry Ford and every other top prospect being in play as well. The Mariners under Jerry Dipoto have always been averse to major outlays for rental players. But, again, this is Shohei Ohtani we’re talking about. He has his own set of guidelines.

In the end, it would come down to just how badly the Mariners want Ohtani – not just now, but in the future.

Yes, Ohtani might stay in Anaheim if Moreno doesn’t have the stomach for trading his unicorn despite the baseball arguments. Yes, the risk of an Ohtani deal backfiring for the Mariners are undeniable.

But the upside is so immense, and so tantalizing, that I don’t know how you don’t try to make it happen.