Commentary: Why the Mariners are entering the two most important weeks of their season

SEATTLE – After the Mariners’ last game before the All-Star break, a win over the Astros to clinch a four-game series, manager Scott Servais walked around the clubhouse, “patting the guys on the back and telling a few of them to spend four days on the couch.”

“You don’t have to tell me twice,” shortstop JP Crawford responded.

Last year, the Mariners reached the All-Star break on a 14-game winning streak and were annoyed to have their momentum interrupted. And, indeed, the M’s were swept in a three-game series after the break, temporarily halting their surge.

But this year, despite culminating the first half with their first sustained run of success all year – seven wins in their final nine games – the Mariners were happy to get a chance to be couch potatoes (or pool potatoes, as it turned out in Crawford’s case – “it was too nice for the couch”). Well, all but All-Stars Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby and Luis Castillo, and Servais, who served on Dusty Baker’s American League staff.

The bumpy, erratic first half was taxing on everyone. And there is an implicit understanding among the players and staff that the next two weeks and three days before the trade deadline are absolutely vital to their chances of a return playoff trip. So better to rest up for the maelstrom to come.

“Last year, we had a great run right before the break, and I wanted to keep playing,” Servais said during the All-Star break. “I didn’t want to stop. This year, I feel a little bit different. We’ve had some ups and downs in the first half. And it takes its toll on your body, but also mentally, when your team isn’t going well, and (you’re asking), ‘How do we get it turned around?’ ”

It’s something the Mariners must solve immediately – and the first appearance of the second-half M’s was not very encouraging. Virtually every flaw showed up on Friday in a 5-4 loss to the lowly Tigers, particularly the preponderance of swing-and-miss (13 strikeouts) and the glaring lack of situational hitting. The result was yet another one-run loss – their 17th in 27 such games, a stark reversal of their one-run success in recent years.

President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander are watching intently to see where the Mariners stand as the Aug. 1 trade deadline approaches.

“It will be a crazy two weeks,” Hollander said Friday before the game. “Our team has given us a lot of positive momentum going into and now coming out of the break. So hopefully we can add to the team and make it better.”

Last year, the Mariners moved close enough to contention after a 29-39 start to warrant the big-ticket acquisition of pitcher Luis Castillo on July 30. How they do in the upcoming series with Detroit, Minnesota, Toronto, Minnesota again and Arizona leading into the deadline will determine whether Dipoto and Hollander think big, small – or in the worst-case scenario, start building for next year by dumping players for prospects.

Servais reiterated the obvious on Friday – that pitching is the strength of this team and the main cause of hope for the second half. The Mariners entered the game with an MLB-best 1.82 earned-run average in July. They also led the American League in runs scored over their past 17 games, but that doesn’t mitigate their crying need for offensive help that manifested itself over the previous 72 games.

“If we have the opportunity, we will find a way to improve our team, and I think offense has obviously been an area of focus for us,” Hollander said. “The pitching has been so good. I think it’d be really hard to turn the dial and make the pitching better than it’s been. The offense has been inconsistent. It’s been up and down and in neutral for awhile and (we’d like) to find a way to make our offense more consistent every day. I think it’s something that is realistic, and something that we will try do over the next two and a half weeks.”

The Mariners reached the break with a 45-44 record, meaning they would have to play .616 ball (45-28) over their final 73 games to match the 90 wins of both 2021 and 2022 (and after Friday’s loss, change that to .625 ball over their final 72 games).

In 2021, that left them just short of a wild-card playoff berth. Last year, 90 wins was good enough to grab the second of three wild-card spots. At this year’s All-Star break, the third wild-card team – a tie between the Astros and Yankees – was projected for 89 wins.

By comparison, the Mariners had identical 47-42 records after 89 games the previous two years, and went 43-30 (.589) on both occasions to reach 90 wins. In other words, they’ll have to close better than they have the past two years to reach the 90-win threshold.

In the category that matters most, the Mariners were four games out of the wild card and six games behind the division-leading Rangers at the break. Neither is insurmountable, especially with the Mariners’ pitching. But it will take the sort of sustained roll that has eluded them all season.

The Mariners have roughly two weeks to show, definitively, that they are legitimate contenders in order to warrant a significant in-season upgrade. The primary responsibility is on the under-achieving players, sprinkled throughout the lineup, who have yet to show the consistency to spark a needed surge.

Now’s the time. The decision-makers are watching.