Erdogan’s election prospects take a hit as a challenger drops out

Three days before Turks vote in crucial presidential elections, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s chances of securing a swift victory took a hit on Thursday when one of his challengers left the race, a move likely to benefit Erdogan’s main competitor.

The withdrawal of one of the race’s four contenders also increased the possibility that the main opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, could obtain a simple majority of votes Sunday, a win that would abruptly end Erdogan’s 20-year streak as Turkey’s most prominent politician.

The simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections will set the future course for Turkey, a major economy at the intersection of Europe, Asia and the Middle East, and a NATO ally of the United States.

The election could alter Turkey’s foreign affairs. Under Erdogan, Turkey has pursued a nonaligned foreign policy that has unnerved its NATO allies. While Turkey condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has sent aid to the Ukrainian military, Erdogan has pursued a closer relationship with President Vladimir Putin of Russia.

At home, Erdogan’s standing has sunk, primarily because of extremely high inflation that has eaten into family budgets. Many economists attribute the inflation, which exceeded 80% last year, to Erdogan’s ill-advised financial policies.

Seeking to unseat Erdogan is a coalition of six opposition parties that have backed a joint presidential candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a former civil servant. Kilicdaroglu has vowed that if he wins he will undo Erdogan’s legacy by restoring the independence of state institutions like the central bank in the Foreign Ministry, releasing political prisoners and strengthening democratic norms.

Recent polls have suggested a slight lead for Kilicdaroglu, which would likely receive a lift from the withdrawal of one of the other candidates on Thursday.

That candidate, Muharrem Ince, was predicted to win votes in the single digits, but even that could have been enough to deprive any other candidate of winning a majority, prompting a runoff between the top two vote-getters on May 28.

Analysts caution that many Turkish polls have proved unreliable in the past, and that how this one plays out could be surprising. Erdogan remains popular among a significant share of Turks, who like his nationalist rhetoric, credit him with developing the country or simply have a hard time imagining anyone else in power.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.