Analysis: Five things that stood out about Chiefs’ win over Bills to reach AFC title game

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. – The AFC Championship Game won’t run through Kansas City, but it still runs through the Chiefs.

For the sixth straight year, the Chiefs are headed to the AFC title game. They returned with a 27-24 victory against the Bills after Tyler Bass missed a field goal late in New York on Sunday evening.

The Chiefs will head to Baltimore next week to face the top-seeded Ravens.

On Sunday, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen balled out.

That was nearly overshadowed after the Bills pried the ball out from Mecole Hardman.

But at last: The AFC playoff picture will look familiar nonetheless.

Here are five observations from immediately after the AFC Divisional Round game.

1. The Mahomes show on the roadThe Chiefs’ offense has returned to “other teams will do whatever it takes to avoid giving it back to Patrick Mahomes” good.

Even if meant a fake punt in their own territory.

You can’t look at the totals for the evidence – the Chiefs only had the ball seven times. They scored on five of them and reached the 1-yard line on the other.

On a per-play basis? Mahomes dominated the game.

He missed two throws early, both of them corner routes in the end zone. So guess how his first touchdown arrived? A corner route to Travis Kelce.

It’s the offense for which we’ve been waiting all season – a sound running game, an efficient passing game that can get chunk plays and can actually take advantage of some soft spots on the back end of the secondary.

The Chiefs averaged 7.7 yards per play, their season high.

2. The inexplicable Mecole Hardman playIt’s hard to put a negative play near the top of this list, given the impact of where the Chiefs are headed.

But goodness.

Through three quarters, the Bills had not managed to stop the Chiefs offense even once.

No problem. The Chiefs took care of it for them.

On a first-and-goal snap from the three, the Chiefs ran a reverse pitch pass to Mecole Hardman, who did what he did the first time he touched the ball. He fumbled.

That’s right. Two touches. Two fumbles.

It was an utterly confounding play call to call Hardman’s number – and frankly surprising he was a part of the game plan after last week’s performance – and an equally confounding execution of it from Hardman. He reached the ball for the goal line – while his legs were being grabbed. And on first down, no less.

It’s an inexcusable decision that resulted in the biggest play of the game, a 6.7-point swing, per Ben Baldwin’s model that decreased the Chiefs’ chances to win the game by 22%.

3. A fresh Travis KelceTravis Kelce sat out the regular season finale, he said, because it would have been “selfish” to play in pursuit of an individual milestone.

Turns out, the decision helped, um, himself.

Or his future self.

Kelce looked a step quicker over the past two games – and every bit the menace he was over the first half of the season.

He had five catches for 75 yards and two touchdowns.

It’s his first multitouchdown game of the season. Heck, it was his first touchdown in seven weeks, breaking the longest drought of his career.

It’s not coincidence. While the conventional wisdom is that an effective bye week would aid him for the following week, it instead provided a lasting effect beyond it. On Friday, I asked him about it, and after talking about how different his body felt not recovering for a game, he added, “I think that helped me out even this week coming into this game.”

4. Playoffs MVS?One of the more intriguing matchups-within-the-matchup derived from a weakness in the Chiefs passing game and a weakness within the Bills secondary.

Those are two strong units, to be clear. But with two obvious weaknesses: The Bills were the eighth-worst team in football in defending the deep ball, and Patrick Mahomes closed the year with the shortest average depth of target in the league.

Well, the Chiefs got them.

And you won’t believe the culprit: Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

He twice beat the Bills deep into their secondary, and with two tough catches, no less. He gained 32 on one and 30 on the other, marking two of his longest five plays from scrimmage all year.

5. The run defenseYou might’ve called this nitpicking if I’d brought it up in the middle of a season in which the Chiefs finished second in scoring defense, but that’s what opposing teams do.

They nitpick.

And the Bills picked the weakness in a much-improved Chiefs defense.

The run game. With their running backs. With their quarterbacks. It didn’t matter whom.

The Bills offensive line bossed Kansas City’s defensive line – and, in effect, controlled the tempo of the game, limiting its possessions.

The Chiefs had allowed a season-high in rushing before the fourth quarter even arrived – a virtual no-show from the guys up front in the run game until a Chris Jones pressure late forced a hurried Josh Allen throwaway.

The Bills rushed for 182 yards. And here’s what awaits next: The Ravens, owners of the top rushing offense in the league.