Iran’s Khamenei warns of ‘crushing’ response to Israeli strikes

TEL AVIV – Iran’s supreme leader vowed on Saturday to give a “crushing response” to Israel’s attacks on Iranian military and missile defense sites, saying that the operation would “not go unanswered” and hinting at a potential role for Iran-backed groups in any reprisal.

The comments, which Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made before an audience in Tehran, were the leader’s most direct on whether he would order a response to the strikes on Oct. 26. Israeli officials have signaled in recent days that they believe Iran is preparing to retaliate, citing intelligence.

In his address, Khamenei did not explicitly say that an attack would originate from Iran. Instead, he said a response would come from forces that are fighting Israel and its U.S. backers “on behalf of the Iranian nation.”

Tehran maintains a network of allied militias across the region, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen and a coalition of proxy groups inside Iraq. For Iran, the groups both project its influence in the Middle East and act as a bulwark against any direct attacks on Tehran.

Militia leaders in Baghdad said Saturday that they were either apprised of Iran’s attack plans or helping coordinate them.

“We are in full coordination with Iran to ensure the success of the strike,” said Ali al-Lami, a member of the political committee of Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, an Iraqi Shiite militia that is loyal to Khamenei. “Iran has the right to retaliate from any point in the region,” he said, adding that his group believed that the strike would “increase the likelihood of a wider conflict.”

Such an escalation could also spell trouble for the Biden administration, which is engaged in a last-ditch effort to reach cease-fire deals in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. The United States also has about 2,500 military personnel still in Iraq, and a clash there between Israel and Iran risks drawing them into the battle.

Iraq’s government, which has diplomatic relations with both the United States and Iran, said it is working to de-escalate tensions and prevent the country from becoming an arena for battles between regional rivals. It said it is opposed to its land or airspace being used to escalate tensions and expand the conflict.

“We call on the international community to take responsibility and fulfill its duties to prevent and spare the region from unintended wars,” said Fadi al-Shammari, an adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

Iraq has accused Israel of using its airspace to launch missiles into Iranian territory, and the government last week formally complained to the United Nations Security Council. Israel has not confirmed that it used Iraqi airspace in the strikes, which targeted air defense systems and missile production facilities. Four Iranian soldiers were killed in the attacks.

But Iran could be planning to use Iraq as a launchpad for its attacks, analysts said, perhaps to try to avoid culpability or to complicate an Israeli response. The militias in Iraq have emerged as an important player for Tehran, as Israeli operations pummel Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

“With Hamas defanged, and Hezbollah under pressure, (Iran) no longer has a coercive edge over Israel,” Afshon Ostovar, a professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in California, said. “The regime is more alone than it’s been in decades.”

Israel and Iran began trading fire in April when an Israeli airstrike targeted and killed senior Iranian commanders at Iran’s consulate in Damascus. Iran responded with its first direct attack on Israel, launching hundreds of missiles and drones and Israeli territory.

Then, after Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July, and Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah in Beirut in September, Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Oct. 1. Dozens of missiles broke through Israel’s defense systems and landed on or near military sites.

Israel and Iran are in “uncharted territory,” Ostovar said, but the odds favor Israel, which has much more modern and sophisticated military backed by the United States. “If Iran conducts another massive attack, it’ll compel another damaging Israeli counteraction,” he said. “That’s not a cycle that advantages Iran.”

In Lebanon on Saturday, an Israeli reconnaissance team captured a man the military alleged was a senior Hezbollah operative, an Israeli military official said.

The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity in accordance with military protocol, said the man was an “expert in his field” and had been brought to Israeli territory after being apprehended in a “special operation” by an elite Israeli navy team in the coastal city of Batroun, in northern Lebanon.

Surveillance footage posted on social media showed a man being led down a street by an armed group in military gear. Lebanese Transport Minister Ali Hamie confirmed that the video depicted the incident and said security services were investigating.

A person involved in the investigation in Batroun, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter, described the man as a civilian navy captain who is based there for training. A Lebanese official familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive situation, said that the man’s name is Imad Amhaz, and that he is a Lebanese naval officer. The Lebanese Armed Forces are investigating, an army spokesperson said.

Sirens also sounded across Israel on Saturday with multiple rockets and drones fired from Lebanon, the military said.

At least one rocket landed in the city of Tira, where most residents are Palestinian citizens of Israel. Nineteen people were wounded in the strike, according to Israeli police.

Muhamad Haskia, 46, said there were so many wounded because there are no public bomb shelters in Arab neighborhoods.

“Look at the Jewish community, it’s a big difference,” Haskia said, even though they live “in the same state and the same country.”

- – -

Salim reported from Baghdad, Pietsch from Washington, Haidamous from Beirut and Levine from Tira, Israel.