Can Harris win the election? Here are her possible paths to victory.
A little over a month ago we looked at the most likely paths that Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump have to win the presidency with the help of The Washington Post’s polling average.
Now, the day before Election Day, we revisit their paths to the White House. Spoiler alert: Not much has changed for either Harris or Trump. Their paths remain largely the same.
The polls have tightened since September, moving ever so slightly in Trump’s direction. He leads Arizona now by two percentage points instead of one. He also narrowly leads North Carolina, which had been a toss-up. Harris still leads in the three Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but she has lost ground there. She also leads in Nevada by one point.
Overall, though, the polls have been pretty stable, consistently showing the race as a toss-up or that Harris and Trump are equally likely to win the presidency. In this article, we look at Harris’s three most likely paths to get to the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Here’s our look at Trump’s paths.
Harris wins the Rust Belt and exactly 270 electoral votes
Harris’s mostly likely path to the presidency is through the Rust Belt as she has posted some of her best polling numbers there. If she is able to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as all the non-swing states that Joe Biden won in 2020, that would put her at exactly 270 electoral votes, the minimum necessary to win.
She is ahead in all three states, but her position has deteriorated a bit since early October. This is especially true in Pennsylvania, the largest and most electorally important of the Rust Belt states, where her three-point lead has shrunk to less than one point. Even a polling error smaller than the ones we saw in 2016 or 2020 could cost Harris all three states.
To win the Rust Belt, Harris needs to hold on to the gains that Biden and she made in the suburbs during the 2020 election. She also can’t afford to lose ground in the city of Philadelphia, where Democrats’ margins with Black voters have ticked down in the past three presidential elections.
Harris repeats Biden’s 2020 victory
When Harris first became the Democratic nominee, it looked as if she might overtake Trump in all seven battleground states and be able to repeat - or even surpass - Biden’s 2020 victory. She gained four points nationally in her first six weeks at the top of the ticket compared to where Biden stood when he dropped out. Across the seven battleground states, she gained almost five points.
Since late August, however, her rise has stalled and she is behind Trump in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina, according to The Post’s polling average. It’s hard to see how Harris closes this gap now with millions of Americans having already cast their ballot.
But the reason this scenario remains Harris’s second most likely path to victory is because Trump’s lead in all three states is pretty small: All three states are within a normal-sized polling error of three and a half points. Trump leads by only two points in Arizona and Georgia and less than one point in North Carolina. So if Harris can continue to win Black and Latino voters with margins similar to what her and Biden posted in 2020 while simultaneously holding onto their gains in the suburbs, she could win Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. She might even be able to flip North Carolina.
Harris wins the Sun Belt
According to the Post’s polling average, winning the presidency by just winning the Sun Belt – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina - is Harris’s least likely path. While she initially gained ground in all four states compared to Biden and maintains a one-point lead in Nevada, she is still behind Trump in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
One big reason this scenario is Harris’s least likely path is because winning would essentially require two polling errors, pointing in opposite directions: Harris would need to be overestimated in the polls in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin while also underestimated in the Sun Belt.
To be sure, this kind of polling error could happen. It’s possible, for instance, that Trump is underestimated in the Rust Belt, similar to 2016 or 2020, and that Harris is underestimated in the Sun Belt. But in recent elections, polling errors have moved in the same direction, so two simultaneous errors of this magnitude would be somewhat unusual. Similar to the previous scenario, to win, Harris would need to hold onto Latino and Black voters, as well as post strong margins in suburban Phoenix and Atlanta.